A Scottish independence will not start a cascade of independence across Europe. Within in the EU, the only states with chance (or risk) of splitting are UK, Spain and Belgium (and Cyprus if you would count a de jure non-unification as splitting). These cases can be discussed one by one but the rest of EU simply lacks any serious independence movements. And I also do not see any strong link between say UK and Spain that would make independence movements in Spain stronger if Scotland became independent.
So my conclusion is that if Scotland becomes independant it will indeed resemble the 1905 split of the Sweden-Norway union. A new line on maps, new diplomatic channels, but no greater effects outside of the UK. A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
AFAIK, the only place outside the UK where Scottish independence could change things quickly is the Basque country. Catalonia just got its spanking new Autonomy Statute (25-year revision) and the election once again resulted in a left (as opposed to nationalist) government. The Basque Country seems to be holding off on the Statute and holding its breath on ETA, and has elections coming up soon, plus it does have a bare nationalist majority and a nationalist minority government. Batasuna could get a big electoral boost if it became legal, the peace process didn't break down and Scotand became independent.
In the medium term (2 election cycles) we might see the UK breaking up and the EU question being posed forcefully in England.
But thinking of domino effects beyond that is a little far fetched at this point. Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
But the breakup of Yugoslavia did not have a domino effect on the rest of Europe. Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
