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I do agree that if Scotland became independent, independentis parties elsewhere would be strengthened in the next election cycle. Conversely, centralist parties would freak out. But the Scottish elections are next Spring. Assuming an SNP victory, give it 6 months to a year for a referendum. Then 6 months to a year to negotiate partition. This gets dangerously close to the next Westminster elections.

AFAIK, the only place outside the UK where Scottish independence could change things quickly is the Basque country. Catalonia just got its spanking new Autonomy Statute (25-year revision) and the election once again resulted in a left (as opposed to nationalist) government. The Basque Country seems to be holding off on the Statute and holding its breath on ETA, and has elections coming up soon, plus it does have a bare nationalist majority and a nationalist minority government. Batasuna could get a big electoral boost if it became legal, the peace process didn't break down and Scotand became independent.

In the medium term (2 election cycles) we might see the UK breaking up and the EU question being posed forcefully in England.

But thinking of domino effects beyond that is a little far fetched at this point.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 29th, 2006 at 09:07:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just like Slovenian independence yielded few consequences?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Nov 29th, 2006 at 01:00:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're oversimplifying the Yugoslav wars and you know it.

But the breakup of Yugoslavia did not have a domino effect on the rest of Europe.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 29th, 2006 at 01:07:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point. Why Scottish independence, if the breakups in Southeastern Europe and the Soviet Union didn't lead to that?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 29th, 2006 at 01:11:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I suppose you could always try to argue (chronologically) Czechoslovakia -> USSR -> Yugoslavia, but I don't think there is evidence of exogenous causes in any of those breakups.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 29th, 2006 at 01:22:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can hardly compare Slovenian independence to the European meltdown you predict from Scottish independence. The rest of the disintegration wasn't prompted by the Slovenian secession, and Tudjman and Milo would have gotten to a break even if Slovenia stays put.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 29th, 2006 at 01:08:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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