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Guns and money.

I think that the IRA has more guns and money than the Unionists.  And I think that in terms of hard core militants the IRA can call a larger force out than the Unionists.  This is why disarmenment is important and the Unionists refuse peace until the IRA turns over all arms.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 06:11:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now you committed just what others here did: assuming things remain the same. Just as the IRA could rapidly arm itself throughout the seventies and eighties, and Iraqi militias in the last three and a half years, militias of a Protestant minority left alone and under pressure can arm themselves in no time. Furthermore, even if the IRA is stronger, that doesn't mean it is that much stronger that it could achieve a total defeat and ethnic cleansing of the opposed side. (In Bosnia, in the first few years, the Serbs were in a superior position like IRA? but failed in total ethnic cleansing. Croatia could achieve its total ethnic cleansing with substantial NATO help for its military.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 06:19:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The IRA hasn't turned over all its arms?

I can't remember what the DUP are looking for at the moment. Hold on . ... ah yes, the current stumbling block is Sinn Fein properly recognising the police force, the PSNI. That's what it's down to now: arguing over who recognises and sits on the policing board.

I think you're living in a fantasy land.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 06:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Has the IRA destroyed all it's arms?

Without photographic evidence there's still a lot of suspicion that the IRA arms were never destroyed for this reason.

I don't much care for the condescending tone Colman.  If you have a countering view, back it up with some links, because I think that despite the statements dissident factions within the IRA will never back down.  And the Unionists.

It's not like an armed Unionist killer stormed into the Northern Irish Assembly with a plan to kill Sinn Fein leaders.

Oh wait, that did happen last week.

You're living in a fantast land if you don't understand the the nationalist tensions in Northern Ireland have been swept under the rug.  A growing minority rejects both sides, but so long as an armed man with plans to kill their opposition is able to gather the weapons they need to make a go of it Northern Ireland isn't stable.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 07:15:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To say that North Ireland isn't stable and to claim that one side is capable (and willing?) of total ethnic cleansing are two different things.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 05:54:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
despite the statements dissident factions within the IRA will never back down

Do those factions control all the weapons?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 06:00:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is yet another point.

DoDo, even supposing the IRA and the Unionists disarm, does that make a difference if organized struggle within those factions ends, but numerous individuals are willing to take independent action, like what happened last week?

Once you gone to where Northern Ireland is now, it's hard to put all the anger and resentment, and the desire to harm back in the bottle.  You have a generation who only know what life is like when politics becomes a matter of arms.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 02:40:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DoDo, even supposing the IRA and the Unionists disarm, does that make a difference if organized struggle within those factions ends, but numerous individuals are willing to take independent action, like what happened last week?

It sure does, which doesn't mean I will predict one definite course for events to follow. Such breakaways could (a) grow just as strong as the original groups, (b) stay causers of isolated actions and falter for lack of networking, (c) go way out of sync with the majority of 'their side' and fail even if managing ever more spectacular action. (For the last, see Real IRA or the German Rote Armee Fraktion.)

For the (a) scenario, I'd guess the Protestants are more of a concern, not because of that mad gunman, but the potential from the masses of idiots like the Orangemen.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 05:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you are reading discussions about a potential future as discussions of a certain future.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Dec 1st, 2006 at 05:58:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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