I think Provence or at least its Mediterranean shore would be a much better candidate than assimilated Alsace-Lorraine. There are also the Basque lands. On the other hand, once these regions would leave, who knows, maybe Gascogne, Burgundy, Savoy would also go that way.
Belgium splits in three parts, Wallonia, Flanders, and the free city of Brussels.
Plus a fourth: the German areas in the East.
In Italy, Venice is a state once more, along with Padania, Aostia, Sud Tirol, Fruilla-Venezia...
Methinks if those go, Toscana would definitely break off Padania, and Trentino from South Tyrol (= Alto Adige = Südtirol). And later on, Padania and Toscana could again break up into city-states.
Even the Sami get their own state.
Unfortunately I can't see pictures on photobucket across my office internet filter, so I can't be sure you haven't already used these additions:
Netherlands: Friesians, Dutch Bible Belt.
Bavaria: Frankonia (North Bavaria).
Czech Republic: Moravia.
Slovakia: breaks in Western and Eastern halves.
Poland: stays largest country.
Baltics: Russian areas split off, remains of Latvia split in two.
Russia: all autonomous regions split off.
Georgia: autonomous republics split off for real.
Ukraine: splits first into Ukrainian-language-nationalist West, Kyev-centrist Centre and Russian-language Southeast, then into nine regions.
Moldavia: Dnjester Republic now officially, then Carpathian mountain regions.
Romania: splits into Moldavia II, Wallachia, Hungarian-Transsylvania and Romanian-Transsylvania.
Hungary: East splits off.
Croatia: Istria, Dalmatia.
Bosnia: first two, then three ethnic states, then Serbian and Bosnian parts split in two.
Montenegro: two separate mountain regions (one Muslim, another pro-Serb) and South corner (Albanian) split off.
Serbia: Kosovo, then Vojvodina, and both the Monenegrin and Macedonian border regions, then Kosovo and Vojvodina splinter.
Macedonia: Albanian parts.
Greece: Athos mount, maybe North/South split.
Bulgaria: Turkish South, maybe Black Sea coast.
Turkey: Kurdish regions, maybe Centre/West split. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The others are a joke. Alsace-Moselle has been adressed elsewhere in the thread (by lacordaire and me), Brittany autonomy is pushed by just a few people, and I've never even heard of any kind of movement or position in Normadny, let alone Burgundy or Gascogne. Savoie might be a slightly more serious contender, but not by much.
I just don't see any breakup of France, even in a pan-European remapping scenario. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Majorities may change with time. Did so in Yugoslavia.
Brittany autonomy is pushed by just a few people
I think you underestimate (at lest the potential) of Breton nationalism. In this poll, though only 19% of those in Bretagle (and paradoxically, 30% of those in Loire-Atlantique) are favorable to Brittany's independence, that's more than in Corsica (14%), while 49% want obligatory language education, and absolute majorities support more regional autonomy in all but one field.
What's more, 42% of the inhabitants of Brittany (and 24% of even Loire-Atlantiqueans) see themselves as Bretons first, 24% of those in Brittany (32% of those in Loire-Atlantique) identify with local commune, and only 26% with France. (I didn't even know: a wide majority of both départements would like to see them joined.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I speak as a Norman de souche, as if this counts for something. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
The French state is highly centralized, and the department line rarely coincide with actual ethnic boundaries, which makes using a NUTS-2 map to create the map I've done above much harder.
I would not dismiss the Bretons, nor a limited Alsatian state.
I don't think that the Basques in France would ever be serious contenders for linkage with a Basque state. Once upon a time theres was a French Basque terrorist group called Iparretarrak. ETA use France as a staging area for many years, and they still do things like store explosives in Bayonne, and so on. ETA was not amused by Iparretarrak because they wanted to avoid provoking the French.
One of the untold stories of the Basque country is the role that France played in looking away when ETA was planning terrorist attacks from the late 60's to early 90's. It was only in the 90's that French and Spanish police began to cooperate, and ETA still uses France as a staging area. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
That doesn't preclude separatism. Your map (which I had only briefly a chance to look at at home last evening) seems to show you believe too much in separatists wanting to join 'the home country'. But separatists might find autonomy preferable to becoming an unimportant province within anothjer larger country. Upthread I already pointed bruno-ken towards the example of Romania and Moldavia; I think Kosovo is destined to be another example (i.e. won't join Albania). Maybe Transdnistria is yet another example, I don't think they would want to join the Ukraine (from which Stalin cut the area off when taking Moldova from Romania). *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Can't see it, no real feeling for secessionism in current Italian politics. Everyone-but-everyone is localistic but 99% of the feeling is "campanilismo" = "belltowerism": "our town and its belltower-glorious history-traditions-food-culture-etc is better than the next (nearest, in same province) town and its belltower-etc-etc. The Northern League started as a "fake-separatist" party in the richest northern regions with strong hostility towards southerners - especially local immigrants from southern italy - and a hatred of central government but was basically about northern taxes not going to subsidize depressed areas in the south. Later went federalist, decided it was content with local governments (city councils, regions) ruling their own little administrative roosts and doing more local-level taxing. Its BIG claim to fame is xenophobic venting - now addressed not against other Italians but against immigrants, africans muslims and roma at the top of the hate-list. It polls around 4.5% nationally these days, in the northern regions its electoral range is from 13-point-something to zero-point-something so not exactly a local majority. Mainly hot air and viciousness.
Dunno about Sud Tirolo?? but only other part of Italy I think does feel it's a different "nation" - with some justification -is Sardinia.. very strong cultural identity. But again, the separatist movement can be fiery (paper bombs) but in serious political terms it's marginal: in the last elections the separatist Sardinian Action Party polled less than 6 percent in Sardinia itself. The "special-status regional autonomy" system has done a lot to decrease centrifugal tensions.
So I don't feel there's any real prospect of a split-up - De Gondi and Melo correct me if I'm wrong, OK? "Ignoring moralities is always undesirable, but doing so systematically is really worrisome." Mohammed Khatami
though if napoli doesn't get a grip, vesuvio might go off...
is burlesquoney gonna make the gig tomorrow?
etc, did you see the perfectly-synched rescue of silvio's dignity?
choreography is a great thing
understated, huh? ~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
Also, I reiterate what I wrote upthread, a 13% minority can (can, won't necessarily do) turn a majority with time, it happened elsewhere. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
