There is no active movement to divide the Irish Republic. There are in all the other countries. The one part that I might have overplayed is in Germany. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
There is no active movement to divide the Irish Republic.
Are ye sure, boyo?
My attempt at a map was to reach the outer edges of the improbable, which history has a way of making come to pass, and the impossible. I overplayed in several countries, but there nationalist political parties hold office and political power in the many countries, including Spain, the UK, and Italy. Those three countries in particular are at the greatest risk of fracture. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
The one part that I might have overplayed is in Germany.
I´d say.... :) There is absolutely no interest right now in independent German states in Germany. For two reasons: 1) History. Between 1618 (Beginning of the 30 Year War) and 1871 (Founding of the second German Empire), the German states were pretty much the "battlefield" of Europe. For the simple fact that none of the smaller independent German states could defend itself against any major European power. Every major European war involved battlefields in Germany. Because of the simple fact that none of the smaller German states could stay neutral in a large European war. Look at Louis XIV or Napoleon for example. 2) Why? I could perhaps see a "new" West Germany and East Germany given the economic differences today. But cohesion inside the "old" West Germany is so high that I don´t see it breaking up. Too much moving around of people to actually support a break-up. (Especially if you count all the refugees from the "old" East Germany territories after WW2 (Eastern Prussia, Silesia, Pomerania)).
Just as an example. My father was born in the town of Dueren, Rhineland. My mother was born in (todays Polish) Pomerania, back then part of Germany. And I was born in North-Rhine - Westphalia. I grew up in the state of Rhineland - Palatinate, studied in North-Rhine - Westphalia, got my first job in Hessia and now own a business in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. You really think I would support a break-up of Germany?
(And third. Some of the "new" German states you envision are artificial products. Coming into existence after WW2. For example North-Rhine - Westphalia or Rhineland - Palatinate are states created after WW2. Without any common history or tradition before. Pretty unlikely that the population there would support independence.)
The only German "states" with some "real" historic tradition are Bavaria, Saxony and - maybe - Brandenburg plus Berlin (core Prussia). Forgetting the city states of Hamburg and Bremen. :) All other states are artificial products of the post-WW2 era.
It has been pointed out in a number of other comments that "real historical tradition" is not the only reason for a region to constitute itself as an autonomous entity. Economic or structural ties are good enough, too. Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
But what about the CSU. If the CSU-CDU union ever broke that would create an very interestinf situation from the Bavarians. This is a way that nationalism could spawn from the innocous. Remember the issues with the Stoiber-Merkel infighting? And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
The history you describe is internalised only by history-conscious educated people. It doesn't preclude a popularist movement. Also, Germany isn't that unique in having a history of having been in smaller units and having been exposed to lots of wars. (BTW nitpick: the Russo-Turkish wars didn't touch German territory, nor the last Ottoman invasions if we exclude Austria.) Yet separatisms usually produce weaker states.
A lot of moving-around of people existed in the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, too -- perhabs even more moving around. That is, lots of mixing doesn't necessarily preventing the formation of majorities (or, in an undemocratic context, of a political leadership) willing to push through separation even if it will be painful break of ties for a minority. That's exactly what happened in the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.
Of course the many Länder are artifical products, but so are the other ones, only older artifical products (what's 'natural' about the conquests of a feudal lord?). But this misses the point. They can gain an identity, or at least a political elite. (Note that the former Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union don't correspond to ethnic borders at all.)
Thus that today, only Bavaria and Saxony have strong local identity, needen't mean much with regards to the future. My scenario for a potential future breakup of Germany would be Bavaria and Saxony going for it, and once they did, similar trends strenghtening in Brandenburg/Berlin and Saarland, and after them in the others, and maybe at one stage some power-intoxicated Landfürsten like Roland Koch decide that they prefer to reign without a federal authority above them even if there is no strong demand from below for autonomy. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
