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A.P. via NYT: Aso: Japan Can Possess Nuclear Weapons

Japan has the technological know-how to produce a nuclear weapon but has no immediate plans to do so, the foreign minister said Thursday, several weeks after communist North Korea carried out a nuclear test.

Foreign Minister Taro Aso, who has called for discussion of Japan's non-nuclear policy, also asserted that the pacifist constitution does not forbid possession of the bomb.

''Japan is capable of producing nuclear weapons,'' Aso told a parliamentary committee on security issues. ''But we are not saying we have plans to possess nuclear weapons.'' <...>

''Possession of minimum level of arms for defense is not prohibited under the Article 9 of the Constitution,'' Aso said. ''Even nuclear weapons, if there are any that fall within that limit, they are not prohibited.''<...>

The non-nuclear stance, however, has come under increasing scrutiny since North Korea's Oct. 9 nuclear test, which raised severe security concerns in Japan.

An empirical test for a variant of my brother-in-law's hypothesis?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 01:03:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
eek²!
by ATinNM on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 01:28:51 AM EST
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I get an earful about the Japanese whenever I go out to eat with my Korean friend.  This guy worked for the Korean government and I think that he's pretty reflective of the way the the South Korean bureaucracy thinks.

The South Koreans will not be amused if Japan develops nuclear weapons, and this would probably cause South Korea to develop nuclear weapons as well.  The South Korean government and Japan do not  get along well with one another.

There's not a tremendous awareness of the negative colonial legacy left by the Japanese in Korea.  The South Koreans honestly are less worried about North Korea developing nukes than they would be about Japan.  There's a tremendous resentment that Korea is divided, and this idea that the Japanes never were made to pay for their actions in Korea.

Sometimes I play the devil's advocate and deliberately say things to draw a response from my friend.  He is very worried about his English, but when he gets a little heated he gains fluency.  We go in circles about Kim Jong Il and Bush.

One time I asked him how he though the South Koreans would respond if Japan attacked nuclear facilities in North Korea.  He said that an attack on North Korea would be like an attack on the South, and that the South Koreans would want to to hurt Japan then.

I get the sickening feeling that the Japanese and the South Koreans are deaf to one another, and that the Japanese might escalate without considering the consequences.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 02:30:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So if Japan gets some nukes there can't the Koreas just join together, end the war and have both nukes and rice & computers?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 03:41:34 AM EST
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If only if were that simple.

The Koreans benefit from the status quo.

The Japanese feel that they can improve there positioon without paying a price.

The South Koreans are worried that the Japanese will create conflict.

Ick....

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 04:08:21 AM EST
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The Koreans benefit from the status quo.

The Japanese feel that they can improve there positioon without paying a price.

Could you expand on these two points?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 04:13:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The North Koreans don't have the ability to attack Japan, but they do have the ability to cross the DMZ.  If North Korea attacked the South in retaliation to a Japanese attack on nuclear facilities, Seoul would be in range of artillery from day 1 of any attack.  Tokyo is not in range of North Koreaa artillery.

Japan can attack North Korea, but North Korea can't attack Japan.  North Korea can attack the South if they feel that the Japanese intend to unseat Kim.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 04:27:20 AM EST
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The North Koreans don't have the ability to attack Japan

Are you talking about reach or accuracy?  As far as Japanese civilians are concerned, I don't think it matters.

Can North Korean missiles strike Japan? North Korea has two missiles, and possibly three, that can strike Japan. The Nodong could deliver conventional and WMD warheads throughout most of Japan (including several U.S. military bases). However, given the missile's relative inaccuracy, the Nodong is more useful as a "terror weapon" against population centers than as a significant military system -- unless it is armed with a nuclear warhead. The Nodong is estimated to have a circular error probable (CEP) of 2-4 kilometers (km), which means half of the Nodongs fired would fall outside a circle of that radius.5 This poor accuracy means that North Korean efforts to strike U.S. bases in Japan would likely cause significant Japanese civilian casualties. The Paektusan-1 (also known as the Taepodong-1) is a two-stage missile with a Nodong as the first stage and a Scud variant as the second stage. The Paektusan-1 can strike anywhere in Japan's territory, but this system is even less accurate and less reliable than the Nodong.

Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies

CNS Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities [PDF]

In any case, I just don't see it happening.  China is not stupid enough to let it happen; and I don't think Kim Jong-Il is that stupid either.  The possibility of some rogue elements in the NK military/government pulling a General Ripper always exists, but the likelihood of that happening seems just too small.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 04:50:04 AM EST
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When I read about Japan's relations with the rest of Asia, I sometimes wonder what Europe would by like today if Willy Brandt had not gone on his knees before the monument commemorating the ghetto uprising in Warsaw.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 04:18:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's also that Germany was divided, Japan was never divided.  The denazification in Germany was much more profound than similiar efforts in Japan.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 04:29:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just a picturesque illustration of Japanese racism
Separately, but still on the theme of go getting a bad press in Japan lately (no fault of go itself, mind you), the post-match commentary Ricoh Pairs final was disrupted by a racist old man in the front row who made a comment politely rendered as "a foreigner won" in the hearing of co-winner (with Inori) Cho Chikun. Cho blew up and pointed out he'd lived in Japan 40 years and could do without comments like that. With the 1,000-strong audience shocked into silence, ushers tried to remove the old man but he wouldn't budge. Eventually Cho told the ushers to desist as that would only make things worse. Racism is not new in Japanese go, of course. Go Seigen was a victim. But it seems indiscriminate. O Rissei seems to be another victim but Rin Kaiho is adored.


Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 05:45:16 AM EST
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Yes, sadly there is still too much such racism in Japan.  Too much.  For all the sophistication the Japanese have in so many ways, it becomes irrelevant in a single shot with this osrt of ugly and pathetic stupidity and ignorance.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Thu Nov 30th, 2006 at 11:55:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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