The Koreans benefit from the status quo.
The Japanese feel that they can improve there positioon without paying a price.
The South Koreans are worried that the Japanese will create conflict.
Ick.... And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
Could you expand on these two points? Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
Japan can attack North Korea, but North Korea can't attack Japan. North Korea can attack the South if they feel that the Japanese intend to unseat Kim. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
Are you talking about reach or accuracy? As far as Japanese civilians are concerned, I don't think it matters.
Can North Korean missiles strike Japan? North Korea has two missiles, and possibly three, that can strike Japan. The Nodong could deliver conventional and WMD warheads throughout most of Japan (including several U.S. military bases). However, given the missile's relative inaccuracy, the Nodong is more useful as a "terror weapon" against population centers than as a significant military system -- unless it is armed with a nuclear warhead. The Nodong is estimated to have a circular error probable (CEP) of 2-4 kilometers (km), which means half of the Nodongs fired would fall outside a circle of that radius.5 This poor accuracy means that North Korean efforts to strike U.S. bases in Japan would likely cause significant Japanese civilian casualties. The Paektusan-1 (also known as the Taepodong-1) is a two-stage missile with a Nodong as the first stage and a Scud variant as the second stage. The Paektusan-1 can strike anywhere in Japan's territory, but this system is even less accurate and less reliable than the Nodong. Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies CNS Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities [PDF]
Center for Nonproliferation Studies Monterey Institute of International Studies CNS Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities [PDF]
CNS Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities [PDF]
In any case, I just don't see it happening. China is not stupid enough to let it happen; and I don't think Kim Jong-Il is that stupid either. The possibility of some rogue elements in the NK military/government pulling a General Ripper always exists, but the likelihood of that happening seems just too small. Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
