Basically, this means that in those countries, voters view the election as less important than the national election and vote with their "heart" or "the boot" rather that their "head." That is to say that even in European parliamentary elections, most voters cast their votes with the intention of getting the chosen party into the national parliament and power. Not so in second order elections. In these, because they don't understand or care what the EP does, they cast votes to punish the national political parties. The more that voters believe that the national political party "system" is unresponsive to citizen concerns the more likely they are to vote for UKIP or another party of that sort.
There's even a strong argument that this is the reason that the European Constitution failed. It was in the countries that the national government was unpopulars that the referendums went to their defeat. while in Spain and to a lesser extent Luxembourg they passed with fairly popular national governments. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
This effect certainly appeared to be in effect in France and the Netherlands. In Spain, other intervening variables may have come into play. If I ever figure out how to build a dataset in R, a free statistical software, I may try to test it further. This was the basis of the research design in my methodology class. Methodology is hard, and dissapointing because I only eked out a B in that class, which is not a good grade in American grad school.
Do you anything about R? And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
R is hard. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
http://www.eurotribwiki.com/pmwiki.php/Main/ToolsForAction Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
It's an anti-system bias, when voters feel that no matter what they do voting for an "established" party isn't going to result in them having their interests represented. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
Basically, it's a protest vote that has no instrumental purpose. Smaller parties campaign on an issue, and voters cast their ballots to raise the salience of that issue, not to elect the party. Rigid systems like the US aren't immune, witness the effect of the Reform party in 1992 and 1996. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
