NEW DELHI - Along with the possibility of international sanctions hanging over Iran, the future of a 2,600-kilometer pipeline to transport natural gas to India from Iran through Pakistan, which is actively opposed by Washington, has fallen into jeopardy. While the three regional governments are going through the motions of planning for the US$7 billion project and say it will be unaffected by an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) referral of Iran's nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council, analysts say chances of the pipeline being built are now remote. Pakistani Oil Minister Amanullah Khan Jadoon is scheduled to visit India this Friday and Saturday to resume talks on the pipeline with Murli Deora, India's newly appointed minister for petroleum and natural gas. Significantly, Deora is perceived as belonging to the pro-US lobby within India's ruling Congress party while Mani Shankar Aiyar, the man he replaced two weeks ago, has openly socialist views. The change of petroleum ministers came amid speculation that New Delhi was having second thoughts about going ahead with the ambitious pipeline project after voting against Iran at the IAEA. There is a May deadline for India to join the project. Top independent commentators in India have criticized the easing out of Aiyar. Writing in the Outlook weekly, Prem Shankar Jha said Aiyar may have been moved out as a side-effect of the long-term energy-security plans he was beginning to implement, which would have shifted control of the energy market in this region away from the United States.
While the three regional governments are going through the motions of planning for the US$7 billion project and say it will be unaffected by an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) referral of Iran's nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council, analysts say chances of the pipeline being built are now remote.
Pakistani Oil Minister Amanullah Khan Jadoon is scheduled to visit India this Friday and Saturday to resume talks on the pipeline with Murli Deora, India's newly appointed minister for petroleum and natural gas.
Significantly, Deora is perceived as belonging to the pro-US lobby within India's ruling Congress party while Mani Shankar Aiyar, the man he replaced two weeks ago, has openly socialist views.
The change of petroleum ministers came amid speculation that New Delhi was having second thoughts about going ahead with the ambitious pipeline project after voting against Iran at the IAEA. There is a May deadline for India to join the project.
Top independent commentators in India have criticized the easing out of Aiyar. Writing in the Outlook weekly, Prem Shankar Jha said Aiyar may have been moved out as a side-effect of the long-term energy-security plans he was beginning to implement, which would have shifted control of the energy market in this region away from the United States.
the long-term energy-security plans he was beginning to implement, which would have shifted control of the energy market in this region away from the United States.
I'd take this with a grain of salt. The last I heard, India (presumably under this guy's leadership) was not even willing to commit to buying gas from that pipeline on a long term basis, which is the most basic commitment you need to actually get going with a pipeline.
This will be a extraordinarily difficult projet in the best case; I seriously doubt that we'll see these 3 countries do it on their own. Ever. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
