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Agreed, a very interesting thread and decidedly out of my area of competence.  Jerome's pragmatic, historic and rational analysis is quite convincing, but I can't help wondering about various sorts of unexpected events producing results that are, a priori, highly unlikely.   The sky has been falling in the dollar market for some years without noticeable effect, yet prudence suggests that some of us may very well find ourselves immersed in an unexpected meteor shower.  It's also not obvious that the creation of an Iranian oil bourse and the possible wide-spread liquidation of dollar reserves are probabilistically independent phenomena.   Habit, inertia and infrastructure have non-trivial weights but so do folly, fear and megalomania.  

Hannah K. O'Luthon
by Hannah K OLuthon on Mon Feb 27th, 2006 at 06:17:40 AM EST
hear, hear.

jerome's explanation is linear, and there is a lot more psychology behind this, imo, in the dollar staying the de facto 'petro-currency', than in the dry accounting factor.

we are talking about a dollar that's stretched extremely thin by debt and profligate non-productive weaponisation, with a disproportionate amount of military bully-force swaggering behind the diplomacy.

superpowers tend not to let go of iconic symbols easily, and the dollar sure is that, and the petrodollar more so.

is it coincidence that saddam was going to change over before he got taken down?

by this diary's arguments, it would appear so.

or am i missing something?

i heard he would have saved a bunch of 'money' by switching.

if that's true,(please correct me someone if i'm wrong), why wouldn't iran set up a bourse in euros.

if they gain on ther balance sheet by saving money by trading in euros, where would the loss come from?

 am i out to lunch?

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Feb 27th, 2006 at 06:49:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, just coincidence.

no real profit made unless you assume Saddam held euros, then converted to dollars when the Euro went from 83 cts to 1.35 (and now 1.19) over a multi year period.  

Of course, holding euros has nothing to do with selling oil but rather how one holds any leftovers after expenses.  This "20% profit" line of argument assumes the cash was just hanging about and that Saddam was lining up to purchase something else in USD anyway.  For all I know, Saddam's purchases were all in Euros (since we were boycotting him) leaving no foreign exchange profit at all.

by HiD on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 08:07:24 PM EST
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