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You beat me to it... I was preparing a diary on wind power 2005, too. But yours is much wider in scope. So I only add various observations to it:

  • GWEC and its European source EWEA are rather sloppy with statistics - they missed a big up-correction of the 2004 number for Spain for example. (So like Kcurie, I check national sites myself too.) At any rate,

  • Germany's 1808 MW and Spain's real 1524 MW is still much more per capita than the US 2450 MW. For Germany, while new installations have fallen for the third year straight, it is noteworthy that it hasn't fallen deeper, despite already significant buildup and political headwind from the conservatives - but with the SPD putting up a surprisingly strong defense for the former Red-Green energy policy, next year there may even be an increase again. In Spain, I note a record 7008 MW actual production (20% of consumption) was achieved one hour two weeks ago.

  • But I think the most noteworthy in Europe is Portugal, a country with the fourth of Spain's population, which doubled its capacity by adding 500 MW. Possibly an effect of the more clear policies of the Socialist government that replaced the right-wing one (called deceptively Social Democrats) left behind by Barroso.

  • India is not so surprising as it has long been on the global top five, and most big manufacturers like Vestas and Enercon have local factories. What is noteworthy that development there has accelerated, beyond a national plan that foresaw a more linear rather than exponential growth.

  • Having upgraded its E-112 turbine model (the number in the name of turbines is usually the draft design rotor diameter in meters), German manufacturer Enercon erected [pdf!] the currently most powerful turbine off-shore near Cuxhafen/Germany (and then still in 2005, two more on-shore). The first five of the type had a 4.5 MW capacity, the units of the new version can do 6MW (Presently 1.5-2 MW are typical), but the 'head' of the turbines is designed to bear the weight of longer blades - unthinkable just a few years ago, 10 MW turbines could become reality in a few years!

* A further advantage of wind power is the speed of projecting and installation. Another is that their manufacturing is less sensitive to resource limitations than say photovoltaic solar cells: what they require in large amounts is steel, what may cause (not insurmountable) problems is supply of semiconductors for power electronics.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 27th, 2006 at 04:02:20 AM EST
A few corrections on Portugal:

 - all mainstream political parties have been supportive of wind power in Portugal. The rationale for Portugal is very convincing (they are further away from their Kyoto targets than any other EU country, they import 85% of their primary energy, they ennjoy strong wind resources and vast areas of barren land).

 - The support framework for wind energy has always been positive but was greatly improved by a new law passed in January of February 2005 that greatly removed long-term tariff uncertainty. Not sure whether the new government was already in office at the time.

 - The new government has launched a tender process last fall to allocate additional generation licences.  If anything, the complex and senseless rules of the tender have added confusion and limited attractiveness of the country for a number of industry players.  Not really good governance.

To sum up, although Portugal has made good progress, it will be difficult to reach their stated objective of 3,750MW (mostly due to, as is the case in many countries, limitations in the transmission networks.)

Not sure that the cost of transmission upgrades is reflected in Jérôme's statistics, nor the recent 20%-odd increase in turbine prices (expected to continue at a similar rate this year).

However, I concur that wind power (when installed at windy sites, that is not in Germany) is not obviously more expensive than other technologies, especially when taking into account externalities and recent incresae in cost of fossil fuels.

'La fin désastreuse a répondu aux moyens indignes' Germain Tillion

by Rom on Mon Feb 27th, 2006 at 06:30:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the correction of my speculation and added background.

The support framework for wind energy has always been positive but was greatly improved by a new law passed in January of February 2005 that greatly removed long-term tariff uncertainty. Not sure whether the new government was already in office at the time.

You are right - elections were held 20 February 2005, the law was enacted 16 February. (This was one of the points where I wanted to check on my memory before posting my pre-empted diary. )

it will be difficult to reach their stated objective of 3,750MW

Hm. I don't know about what plans are there to address the grid capacity problems, but the goal was raised by the new government first to 4,400 MW then to 5,100 MW (by 2010) - 1000 MW is built end of 2005, another 2,300 MW awarded, and your criticism concerns the tendering of a further 1800 MW in two tranches.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 27th, 2006 at 07:27:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, I thought the 1800MW would get us to 3700MW, I did not know they were already there. Overall, I must concurr that they have done a lot so far and that the goals and commitment to go even further are firmly there.

'La fin désastreuse a répondu aux moyens indignes' Germain Tillion
by Rom on Mon Feb 27th, 2006 at 12:32:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean a single turbine can output 10mW? The standart turbines are about 500kW... I guess my info is outdated, or we are talking about some big windmills here :)

Be careful! Is it classified?
by darin (dkaloyanov[at]gmail.com) on Mon Feb 27th, 2006 at 06:40:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Turbine size is indeed developing at a fast place, so if your info is a few years old, indeed outdated. For the current state of affairs, for example in Germany, 1049 turbines with 1807.77 MW vere erected in 2005 - an average of 1723 kW per turbine. On the other hand, it is also common that countries new to wind power start with smaller turbines.

However, the E-112 is indeed rather big - it was the first built of the 5-MW class, intended mainly for off-shore farms. Currently, this class has two other (also German) entrants: the Multibrid M-5000 and the REpower 5M, both rated at exactly 5 MW. Industry leader Vestas is also developing such a machine, the V120, for 4.5 MW.

Actually, these numbers wouldn't look that dramatic if one remembers that single 3-4 MW test units were built in the eighties and early nineties in Germany, the USA and Sweden. However, those had many serious problems - for example Germany's GROVIAN was heavily damaged by a storm. But for example the first E-112 (which I pictured) runs without major problems for three and a half years now.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 27th, 2006 at 06:59:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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