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The raw-dollar value of deficits is irrelevant.  If the deficit is held at $400b, it obviously shrinks as the economy grows.  Eventually, you would end up with a $20t US economy and a $400b deficit, which would, of course, be perfectly manageable.

What matters is the ability of the government in question to pay.  The US enjoys the benefit of having never defaulted, so its credit rating remains strong.  Currently, our interest payments make up somewhere between seven and 10% of the federal budget.  The problem is that this percentge is rising fairly quickly.  As long as we can continue paying the interest, we'll be able to borrow.

It is a problem, though, in the sense that governments should try to maintain low debt levels, so that they can spend if they need to.  Why put down your weapon if the enemy won't put down his?

We've run deficits in all but four years over the last half-century -- '69, '98, '99, and '00 being the surplus years.  (Check me on 1969, though.  It was somewhere around that time.)  But, up until Reagan, the deficits were falling as a percentage of GDP.  That's not wholly Reagan's fault.  The Democrats -- remember, this is the latter portion of the era of Democratic dominance in Congress -- in Congress at the time were not exactly fiscal saints, themselves.  And both had to deal with the Fed purging inflation and sending the economy into the worst recession since the '30s (based on unemployment).

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Feb 9th, 2006 at 11:55:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, all of which is true. But US national debt (a better metric than the official deficit numbers) as a percentage of GDP, which fell pretty steadily after the huge spike of the war, has been on an upward trajectory since the Reagan years, with a brief plateau at the end of the Clinton presidency, and is now picking up a good head of steam going north.

So growth alone won't paint the picture rosy.

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Alexander G Rubio (alexander.rubio@gmail.com) on Thu Feb 9th, 2006 at 01:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure.  But these -- debt and deficits as a percentage of GDP -- all tell the same story.  When deficits and debt are rising as a percentage of GDP, so, too, will the interest payments, cet. par.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Feb 9th, 2006 at 02:54:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On budget Federal Deficit as % of GDP
by btower on Thu Feb 9th, 2006 at 06:28:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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