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Yeah, they may be able to do that, depending on the load along the pipes.

But what the Brits want is not 250p/th but rather the 70p/th like in the Netherlands. What they don't want to pay for is the very deliberate pricing policies the Dutch used for more than 40 years to manage their gas ressources (Nota de Pous).

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.
by Francois in Paris on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:01:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, but that's not how the market works. It will result in higher prices for everyone than the 70p/th. Maybe as high as 200p for everyone involved.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:07:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There, you need to ping the resident specialist, Jerome.

Settling price depends on the elasticity of the demand, which tend to be very inelastic at short term, and spot prices can swing wildly on small variations. I don't think that gas markets are as volatile as electricity but it must not be a pretty sight.

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.
by Francois in Paris on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:19:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't think that gas markets are as volatile as electricity but it must not be a pretty sight.

I think we're about to find out...

To be fair, it's probably easier to turn demand for gas off than it is for electricity, as industrial use is a higher fraction, and I suspect most of it is a lot more price sensitive than electricity users (except very specific cases like Aluminium producers who do not rely on the spot market anyway), so I expect gas demand to be cut ot lower prices, thus limiting volatility to some extent.

But if you have long term shortages, then it's another can of worms. A late cold snap might be vicious.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:23:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
maybe, maybe not.

If the industrials have hedged, they don't suffer any short term pain.  Now you have to stimulate them to buy out of their sales contracts to free up the gas.  That sounds straightforward but people are lazy and would prefer not to upset well laid plans.

Energy markets have been running around for a decade selling these folks price hedges...

by HiD on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 06:39:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And, of course, in fully "deregulated" markets such as the California market in 2000 (the nirvana, if you wish), it can be a lot of fun:

In June [2000], the cost of a megawatt hour increased more than fivefold, going from the 1999 level of $30.53 to $170.60. In October [2000], prices doubled over the same period a year earlier, going from $53.47 to $111.04. And in December [2000] -- despite a 1.46 percent decline in electricity usage from the previous December [1999] -- peak wholesale electricity prices hit $425.59. They'd been $31.88 one year before.

Energy is like health care. It's not a market. Short-term choice is always marginal and cannot support serious market mechanisms.

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.
by Francois in Paris on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:27:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You heretic!

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:31:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was there and I can tell you the heretics came pretty close to burning the orthodoxes alive on a pyre.

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.
by Francois in Paris on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:34:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So was I, then someone shouted "look, they're going to tar and feather Martha Stewart!" and the heretic mob let the orthodoxes escape.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:36:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And then the heretics elected Hanuld Governator ...

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.
by Francois in Paris on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, there is nothing wrong in theory with price spikes like these:

  • they don't apply to large volumes, so the absolute amounts of money involved are not so big even if the headlines are spectacular;

  • they are required in a market setting to make peakers - i.e. power plants that function only when there is a lot of demand - profitable. As they produce a lot fewer kWh than base load plants, they need higher prices per unit to make it worthwhile. It's a pretty risky business, but it is possible to build a business plan on it.

What goes wrong is the following:

  • "liberalisers" that do not have the courage to apply their ideology to the end, and liberalise the wholesale market while keeping caps on retail prices (final users are thus artificially protected form higher prices - one wonders why if the goal is efficiency and good allocation of resources; surely high prices would be a signale to end users to consume less, right). That's what happened in California, and the utilities got squeezed between higher wholesale prices and fixed retail prices, and lost tons of money;

  • market transparency and liquidity becomes essential, and anti-competitive behavior by traders or others must be fought. But that's pretty hard to do against determined cheaters;

  • as a side note to the above, the requirement to have enough spare capacity, a vital need of the system, should be imposed on all players. The UK electricity market is much better in that respect in that it imposes fair balancing and spinning reserves costs to all, thus making it an even playing field and a well regulated system. Traders are penalised in such a system, but that's how it should be because otherwise they'll just free-ride on the spare capacity provided by others.

  • on a long term view, the way new entrants are allowed in is an essential part of the regulatory framework (can they get permits easily, is there a NIMBY syndrome that protects existing players, are they allwoed to sign long term supply and sale contracts to secure financings...

All of this shows that deregulated markets are possible, but are much harder to design than most people say, and politicians have rarely gotten it right, ans sometimes spectacularly wrong.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 11:59:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
market transparency and liquidity becomes essential, and anti-competitive behavior by traders or others must be fought. But that's pretty hard to do against determined cheaters;

Meaning you have to be very, very heavy handed with people who have a lot of money and influence, which is a recipe for corruption and influence disasters in a liberal democracy.

If heavy handed need be, rather be heavy handed with the real task at hand, producing and managing energy.

I'm not a socialist by any mean and I believe than markets work ... most of the time. But for certain things, it doesn't - exhibit A is health care insurance (as opposed to supplying health care itself, where a large private sector can be accomodated as proven by France). IMHO, energy is exhibit B.

Facts, selfish little bastards. They don't even care about your feelings.
by Francois in Paris on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 12:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
based on a number of years in the energy markets, I'd say they mostly work to satisfy the needs of the strongest players.  Consumers are disorganized and therefore terribly weak.
by HiD on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 06:43:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
on all points.

PUC regulation is like democracy...  The worst possible system except for all the rest.

by HiD on Tue Mar 14th, 2006 at 06:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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