I absolutely agree: how come Hillary seems to be supporting him when it undermines her victory chances?
What percentage of the Italian population is supporting him? With the grip he has on media, it won't be surprising if the percentage is large. What's worse is that he has control over the main TV channels, not over the press, and common people get their info from TV.
I read Prodi isn't getting as much air time. What is your opinion of him? And is he the only rival of Berlusconi? What are his victory chances?
Please keep on informing us.:)))
Prodi definitely isn't getting as much air time (like the rest of the center-left). He is officially Berlusconi's rival because, for the first time, "primaries" were held in October for the center-left voters (over 3 million people voted), and Prodi won by an overwhelming margin (over 74%). But to hear Berlusconi, you'd think the candidate was D'Alema. Berlusconi has two main fixations concerning the center-left: the communists, and D'Alema. He insists on saying that the "real" candidate (as in mastermind) is D'Alema, not Prodi, and at one point said he wanted to debate D'Alema and not Prodi for that reason. I think he uses this to keep his followers' fear of the commies fresh in their minds.
Unfortunately, Prodi is about as dynamic as a tree sloth (seems to be a common problem with leftwing candidates everywhere these past few years, doesn't it?), whereas the center-right candidates are always good at projecting great images, even if the substance behind them is nil, or even pure crap. They know how to sell themselves, and the left doesn't. This is the main problem with Prodi: he doesn't excite anyone.
But another thing that worries me, and I never hear anyone mention anything about it, is what’s going to happen with the Italian expat absentee votes.
Italian citizens residing abroad are going to be voting (for the first time) by mail-in absentee ballots precisely in this election.
The right (mostly Gianfranco Fini's former fascist AN party, in particular Mirko Tremaglia) has long championed this cause, and are the ones that wrote and passed the law allowing it. So they've been shrewdly cultivating the "italiani all'estero" (Italians abroad) for quite some time and, since most of those expats haven't lived here for years, they might not know what it's really like nowadays -- and what Berlusconi is really like.
I've been wondering (and worrying) how much the absentee vote may weigh on the elections this time. It might even be one of the reasons why Berlusconi just “happened” to go to the U.S. right now. I definitely wouldn't put it past him. I assume his visit and address were well publicized among the Italian community there, even if hardly anywhere else.
In other words, “official” polls aside, I’m afraid the center-right might smugly have an ace up their sleeve with this absentee vote. And as I said, I haven’t heard anyone even mention it.
Here is something from the Berlusconi government’s viewpoint, which only confirms my fears (my quick translation):
Berlusconi’s reforms: Voting rights for Italians abroad 6 February 2006 For years and years what is an acknowledged right in most major countries continued to be put off. Since it was well known that Italians who live abroad tended to be rightwing, the preceding governments continually put off granting this possibility. Italians abroad are traditionally more nationalistic than the Italians in their homeland. Even if they live in democratic, and sometimes more advanced, countries, they become aware of the value of Italy, its peculiar characteristics, and the merits it has and which are not so much appreciated by those who live there. Abroad the Italians were most bothered by the fact that they were completely forgotten and neglected and, until Berlusconi’s arrival, Italy changed its government at every turn, so it was very difficult to follow its politics and receive adequate services. The Berlusconi Government first set up a Ministry for Italians in the World, and installed the simpatico Mirko Tremaglia, who fought for years to obtain voting rights for Italians abroad. The upcoming elections will be the first political elections in which the Italians abroad will be able to express their preference and will have their own representatives specifically elected on the four continents.
For years and years what is an acknowledged right in most major countries continued to be put off. Since it was well known that Italians who live abroad tended to be rightwing, the preceding governments continually put off granting this possibility. Italians abroad are traditionally more nationalistic than the Italians in their homeland. Even if they live in democratic, and sometimes more advanced, countries, they become aware of the value of Italy, its peculiar characteristics, and the merits it has and which are not so much appreciated by those who live there. Abroad the Italians were most bothered by the fact that they were completely forgotten and neglected and, until Berlusconi’s arrival, Italy changed its government at every turn, so it was very difficult to follow its politics and receive adequate services.
The Berlusconi Government first set up a Ministry for Italians in the World, and installed the simpatico Mirko Tremaglia, who fought for years to obtain voting rights for Italians abroad.
The upcoming elections will be the first political elections in which the Italians abroad will be able to express their preference and will have their own representatives specifically elected on the four continents.
(Emphasis in second sentence mine)
BTW, the “simpatico Mirko Tremaglia” is about as far-right (as in “nostalgic fascist”) as they come.
See also:
I skimmed through the comments, but one really caught my eye:
"More than a comment, I would like some information: I have a number of relatives in Brazil (mostly in Sao Paulo), relatives who will be voting; only a few of them speak Italian, and so even my e-mails might not be very effective. Is there any material available via computer in Portuguese that gives information on the Unione’s policies and the voting procedure and candidate profiles? If so, could I please have a copy to send them?"
Now I'm even more worried. I mean, if these "Italian" voters don't even speak Italian, how many generations back have they gone to allow people of Italian origin to be eligible to vote? "Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
I would think that if someone doesn't speak Italian, but only Portuguese, it would mean that they were born in a Portuguese-speaking country, and have done very little to maintain their Italian culture and ties to Italy. They may have dual citizenship (through their parents and their birthplace). Why should they care to vote in Italian elections?
There's probably an explanation... maybe I'm just nitpicking.
But, as in Bushland, there's just so much that stinks in Berlusconilandia, that it's hard to distinguish exactly between what's rotten and what's not: anything and everything they say or do seems to merit suspicion. "Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
As far as political forcast, four are likely to go to the left with a strong possibility of two more. The only region that will definitely go to the right, Sicily, is helped by the other right wing stronghold, Veneto, which got another senator in the deal.
Since senators can't be cut in pieces, the number of senators in each region for the winning coalition fluxuates around 55%. The loser gets about 45% regardless of how bad they showed.
Despite all the mathematical hocumpocum to wittle out a spare senator here and there, the Union still has an advantage of at least 8 senators.
Still a far cry from the obscene majority B enjoyed these past five years and so mismanaged.
About the Portuguese-speaking Italians, you're right. They don't really seem to be Italian, but rather objects of manipulation.
