European Tribune - Comments - Italian Election Day Open Thread

Italian Election Day Open Thread | 268 comments (268 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

49.80% : 49.73% after it, or 27k lead for the left!!!

174 districts still to report, a mere 7 in Palermo.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:13:46 PM EST

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

Now I guess it depends on the 2% limit and the abroad vote.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What is the 2% limit? (none / 0)

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:17:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is the 2% limit? (none / 0)

If I got it right, only those members of a coalition are counted that passed 2%, plus the first one below. If so, bad for the Left. But I am not sure I got that rule right.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

I peeked at the foreign vote; barely a quarter counted, but surprisingly clearly for the Left. Might help di Pietro.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:21:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

It seems half-half for now but very low counting still.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:30:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

Do you know which side PER ITALIA NEL MONDO would be alllied with?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:39:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

They are conservative but I think they may not be part of Berlusconi's coalition.

by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

It depends on the abroad vote but the total vote of the list counts, no matter the ratio. And if you win the majority of the vote with the list, you win the majority in la camera. As far as I understand the seats are redistributed so that you get 340 seats no matter what.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

With 115 outstanding, it's now 25.8k for the left.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

62 to go, 25K differennce. 30 of these are in Basilicata and Calabria. Which is good.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:29:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 1)

Flcutuation, fluctuation!!!!

We did it!!!! Please no more flcutuations!!!! now, now.. no more... normal course..No flcutations any more!!!

Campania.. I love la cmapania.. the flcutuation came form la campania.....!!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:17:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

So it's going to be 340 seats for the left and 277 for the right, but a rightwing Senate with seven senators more.

Almost all life-time senators are left-leaning. The vote abroad is dismal as far as counting goes.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:23:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

You have to explain that 2% thing!

If both coalitions can only count those above 2% plus the first below, with current numbers that's an extra punishment of 0.43% for the Left, that is a victory for the Right.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:29:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

Caveat: the law is very complicated. In the Camera dei Deputati a coalition must have atleast 10% of which one party atleast 2% in order to designate seats. If a party runs alone it must garner atleat 4%. Both coalitions have passed the 2% threshold. Therefore, they get all the seats they are entitled to.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:35:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

Yes.. we win!!!! the Camera

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:40:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

That cannot be...if this is the case I am going to die.: this means we lose...no.. you should be able to count anyone of the list...otherwise.. lost

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:37:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

Now just 62 districts outstanding, difference 25.7k: impossible to turn around.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:25:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

The flctuation should be enormous to change it.

I think we can safely say that Prodi and all europe owes la Campania a good visit!!!

The senate goes to Berlusconi but it is not clear that some other weird stuff could not happen with the votes aborad....

So la camera to Prodi with very high probability
Senate to berlusconi with high probability

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

Thank you so much for your coverage. If you guys can, could you let us know what happens now that this scenario is likely to play out?

Thanks!

Mikhail from SF

by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

I didn't catch the foreign vote count on La Repubblica's site, nor where it stands out??

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:35:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

Ok just saw it :))
It's the globe!!

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:36:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

As I understand it, there are still 357,000 uncounted voters in Europe alone!!??
Or are the "sezioni" not equal in size? (ie. I extrapolated 70,000 voters for 80 out of 479 sezioni)

I doubt they're equal in size, if they only represent Consulates and Embassies ...

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:42:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

You'll see a spinning globe at the bottom of the index page for each house. Try to catch the area you're interested in. Here's the index for the camera.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:42:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

I only noticed the globe after posting my comment :))

In Europe the vote is clearly in favour of the Left so far, and if my pseudo-extrapolation is valid then this is really good news.

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:44:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Abroad votw could tie the senate (none / 0)

the vote from aborad could tie the senate if it is overwhelmingly for the left.....

Now.. the next question for Gondi.. how much Prodi can trust te vitalici senator to vote with him??? If he can trust them..all we need is a tie.... the senate would be within our reach too!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:51:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Abroad votw could tie the senate (none / 0)

7 new sezionis counted since my last comment on Europe, and already Prodi goes from 55.8% to 55.9%!

Auguriiiiii!!!!

btw: that's about 8000 more for 7 sezioni, so my extrapolation (see below) may actually work. This would be very good news for Prodi, as he could gain an extra lead of 110 000 votes on Berlusconnard (out of 357 000) from Europe alone. Is this correct? I'm tired so may be just jumbling messages in my head.

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:56:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Auguri indeed! (none / 0)

What a wild ride this has been!

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

by brainwave on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:01:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Auguri indeed! (none / 0)

We like to put on a good show.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Auguri indeed! (none / 0)

You have to love the Italian knack for penalty shootout finishes ;))

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Abroad votw could tie the senate (none / 0)

My idea is that what really counts to win the elections is territorial italy. The rest is added on and is therefore functional to governance but not necessary to form a coalition majority.

Now Europe most likely will go to the Left- after all they aren't subject to having their brains fried by Italian TV. It seems South America is voting left also by a recent very partial count.

Life-time Senators are in a class of their own. Often they are not present due to age. However, with the exception of Andreotti, must lifers have the intellectual rigor and breath of humanity common to progressive ideas. So they tend to vote with the Left without ever going down into the brawl of parties.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:07:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PALERMO UNLOADS! (none / 0)

36 outstanding, 27.5k lead for the left.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:34:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Italian Election Day Open Thread | 268 comments (268 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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