51.8 % Prodi 47.3 % Berlusconi
Projecting the resutls towars 100 % we have
50 % Prodi 158 seats 49 % Berlusconi. 151 seats
So it is actually very very very close!!! The low end of the exit poll
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
Right now it is a fair win for Prodi, but everyone predicts it is going to get closer.
Lower House 9.5% counted: 53.81% : 45.36% *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
I expect projections to give soon a complete tie.
Prodi can indeed lose this one.
Isn't the counting of predominantly leftist urban areas slower in Italy, as in most other places? That would mean a widening difference later on. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
bad news. Sicily is underreported.. and in Sicily the rigth get roughly 10 % more votes.
The projections will probably stand at 50-49.
Personal analysis , Berlusconi could have won this 50-49 and the results now will be perfectly possible statistically (Pshi2 very low still).
I am still very worried.
Having said that, there is a huge change that this is still 50-49 and not 49.5 - 49.5 (statistically meaningful) with 0.5 accuracy.
My bet. This is going to be between a 0.5 % for Berlsuconi all up to 2 % for Prodi... But this means nothing to th newsman so nobody is reporting it. Prodi is complaining about it.
I would say we should reach half million votes ahead in the next updates or this will probably be down to each region.. and I would hate that since I do not know enough of the electoral system.
I hope de Gondi or someone else can tell me that my interpretation is wrong... *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
And this is the problem. If the difference is only 1% it all comes down to each region. If the difference is 2% is very unlikely that the majortiy of the seats would go to Berlusconi no matter what because the end of the tail of the distribution would benefit the left.
This is different in the House of Deputies where a party within a coalition must have atleast 2% on national level.
Final ratio prediction is now just 49.8% : 49.1%... *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
The fact is.. this is a tie. It all comes down to each region....
Porca miseria!!!
Go Prodi go!!!
Far-right: Lega at just 4.34%, Mussolini 0.6%.
If I got the election law on the the mini-parties below 2% right, then the left will lose just 0.4% more from the above totals than the right. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
