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Yes, it is undercounted... and the whole South, too... indeed it has narrowed a bit again.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:37:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...but Nexus now wages to predict to the tenth percent, 50 : 48.9!

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some people just do not learn!! this is impossible.. someone not knowing enough statistics did it.

Having said that, there is a huge change that this is still 50-49 and not 49.5 - 49.5 (statistically meaningful) with 0.5 accuracy.

My bet. This is going to be between a 0.5 % for Berlsuconi all up to 2 % for Prodi... But this means nothing to th newsman so nobody is reporting it. Prodi is complaining about it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:49:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I noticed and write down a comment.

I would say we should reach half million votes ahead in the next updates or this will probably be down to each region.. and I would hate that since I do not know enough of the electoral system.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My chief worry is not this. My chief worry is that if I understood the election law right, only those parties within a coalition will be counted in the Senate race that pass 3%, plus one below 3%. For Unione, at the moment this means that Di Pietro's group will be the extra below 3%, and LA ROSA NEL PUGNO's 2.42% would be a big loss without equivalent on the other side.

I hope de Gondi or someone else can tell me that my interpretation is wrong...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:50:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think your interpretion is right but only at the regional level. So, it gets out if in a region it does not reach 3%. You will have to look region by region to know if the party is out of this particular region.

And this is the problem. If the difference is only 1% it all comes down to each region. If the difference is 2% is very unlikely that the majortiy of the seats would go to Berlusconi no matter what because the end of the tail of the distribution would benefit the left.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, in the Senate a coalition must pass with atleast 20% with atleast one party within the coalition with 3% or more. It does not matter in the Senate if there is less than 3% for minor coalition partners.

This is different in the House of Deputies where a party within a coalition must have atleast 2% on national level.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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