The fakery of the outgoing Alan Greenspan administration, in burying the "M3" report, was clearly intended to conceal the fact that the rate of rate of increase of world prices of primary materials has the world as a whole currently on the same kind of "least-action pathway" curve of hyperinflation which gripped Weimar Germany during the second half of the year 1923. Comparing the present rates of rates of increase of primary materials prices with the pattern for Germany 1923, indicates the likelihood that, under present U.S. and European policies, the world system could reach a point of collapse of the monetary system by not much later than September 2006, if not earlier. [[Figure: Weimar 1923 hyperinflation curve]] Under the present trends in policy-making in the U.S. government, both in the careening economic-financial lunacy of the current Bush Administration, but also the "Alfred E. Newman"-like diffidence of a negligent U.S. Congressional fraction of the Democratic Party, the likelihood is that the world system as a whole will be in a U.S.-dollar-triggered collapse-phase before Autumn. The point is not to predict what could happen by Autumn; the point is to kick the relevant political circles in the Democratic Party with the proverbial two-by-four prescribed for reluctant donkeys, and to do so hard enough, soon enough, and often enough, to move to the kind of emergency reform of U.S. policy which could stave off an otherwise onrushing general breakdown-crisis of not only the U.S. system, but the world system as well. There is a relative handful of persons, typified by the Brookings Institution-based Hamilton Project team, who are capable of understanding this, and who already have command of most of the essential facts to be considered. There are professionals in other parts of the world, who could begin to understand this quickly, if they were kicked hard enough to come to the necessary state of wakefulness. The world is thus, now, in the terminal phase of a hyperinflationary collapse of not only the dollar-system, but the world-system as a whole. To bring this into focus, consider the elementary features of the way in which Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan's lunacy orchestrated the 1987-2006 phase of the relevant hyperinflationary cycle. Keep three illustrative curves in view: 1.) My "Triple Curve," which, since January 1996, has described the general characteristics of the ongoing collapse-function of the 1995-1996 interval 2.) The curve of 1923 Weimar, Germany hyper-inflation 3.) The current hyperinflationary rate of rate of increase of primary commodity prices, as led by petroleum and metals. (Leave the "supply-and-demand" freaks, and other statisticians from Swift's Island of Laputa, to play with themselves behind the barn, where they will be happy.) Essentially, what Greenspan did, was to bail out the banks whose coffers had been emptied by the events of October 1987, by laundering the mortgage-based securities packages of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The real-estate bubble was built up to its presently cancerous proportions for this continuing purpose. This, in turn, provided the base-line of monetary and derived financial emission for what was to become a hyperinflationary expansion of a physically contracting economy. (See my Triple Curve.) In the end, this became the core of a global financial-monetary bubble comparable to that of medieval Venice's tool, the Lombard League of Europe's Fourteenth-Century collapse into a New Dark Age. However, in [the current] case, the end-game phase of this hyperinflationary process was cornering of the world market in primary materials. For those shrewd enough to recognize that the present world financial system is already hopelessly doomed, the witting class of predators must have a "landing place" outside the bounds of such a general financial-monetary collapse. Essential raw materials represent that landing-place. Therefore the rate of inflation of the rate of inflation in the market for primary commodities is the characteristic curve of the present world monetary-financial system. This rate of rate of inflation, as reflected in the concealed behavior of M3, is the curve which corresponds to the Weimar, Germany hyperinflationary curve of June-November 1923. Hyperinflation like Weimar 1923: World System on Weimar Collapse Curve by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. April 20, 2006
Comparing the present rates of rates of increase of primary materials prices with the pattern for Germany 1923, indicates the likelihood that, under present U.S. and European policies, the world system could reach a point of collapse of the monetary system by not much later than September 2006, if not earlier. [[Figure: Weimar 1923 hyperinflation curve]]
Under the present trends in policy-making in the U.S. government, both in the careening economic-financial lunacy of the current Bush Administration, but also the "Alfred E. Newman"-like diffidence of a negligent U.S. Congressional fraction of the Democratic Party, the likelihood is that the world system as a whole will be in a U.S.-dollar-triggered collapse-phase before Autumn.
The point is not to predict what could happen by Autumn; the point is to kick the relevant political circles in the Democratic Party with the proverbial two-by-four prescribed for reluctant donkeys, and to do so hard enough, soon enough, and often enough, to move to the kind of emergency reform of U.S. policy which could stave off an otherwise onrushing general breakdown-crisis of not only the U.S. system, but the world system as well.
There is a relative handful of persons, typified by the Brookings Institution-based Hamilton Project team, who are capable of understanding this, and who already have command of most of the essential facts to be considered. There are professionals in other parts of the world, who could begin to understand this quickly, if they were kicked hard enough to come to the necessary state of wakefulness.
The world is thus, now, in the terminal phase of a hyperinflationary collapse of not only the dollar-system, but the world-system as a whole. To bring this into focus, consider the elementary features of the way in which Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan's lunacy orchestrated the 1987-2006 phase of the relevant hyperinflationary cycle. Keep three illustrative curves in view:
1.) My "Triple Curve," which, since January 1996, has described the general characteristics of the ongoing collapse-function of the 1995-1996 interval
2.) The curve of 1923 Weimar, Germany hyper-inflation
3.) The current hyperinflationary rate of rate of increase of primary commodity prices, as led by petroleum and metals.
(Leave the "supply-and-demand" freaks, and other statisticians from Swift's Island of Laputa, to play with themselves behind the barn, where they will be happy.)
Essentially, what Greenspan did, was to bail out the banks whose coffers had been emptied by the events of October 1987, by laundering the mortgage-based securities packages of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The real-estate bubble was built up to its presently cancerous proportions for this continuing purpose. This, in turn, provided the base-line of monetary and derived financial emission for what was to become a hyperinflationary expansion of a physically contracting economy. (See my Triple Curve.)
In the end, this became the core of a global financial-monetary bubble comparable to that of medieval Venice's tool, the Lombard League of Europe's Fourteenth-Century collapse into a New Dark Age. However, in [the current] case, the end-game phase of this hyperinflationary process was cornering of the world market in primary materials.
For those shrewd enough to recognize that the present world financial system is already hopelessly doomed, the witting class of predators must have a "landing place" outside the bounds of such a general financial-monetary collapse. Essential raw materials represent that landing-place.
Therefore the rate of inflation of the rate of inflation in the market for primary commodities is the characteristic curve of the present world monetary-financial system. This rate of rate of inflation, as reflected in the concealed behavior of M3, is the curve which corresponds to the Weimar, Germany hyperinflationary curve of June-November 1923.
Hyperinflation like Weimar 1923: World System on Weimar Collapse Curve by Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. April 20, 2006
Triple curve referred to is here: http://www.larouchepac.com/pages/economy_files/2004/06_principles_fig6.htm
Weimar 1923 hyperinflation curve is illustrated in this PDF on page 10. http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2006/2006_10-19/2006-16/pdf/04-23_616.pdf
Note: The M3 is no longer being published by the FedReserve.
Lyndon Hermyle LaRouche, Jr. (born September 8, 1922) is an American political activist and founder of several political organizations in the United States and elsewhere. He is perhaps best known for being a "perennial candidate" for President of the United States. He is currently listed as a director and contributing editor of the Executive Intelligence Review News Service, part of the LaRouche Movement [1]. Although LaRouche has no formal qualifications, he has written extensively on economic, scientific, political, and cultural topics as part of his political views. Critics regard him as a conspiracy theorist, crackpot, attention-seeker and political extremist, while Chip Berlet, Dennis King, and others have described him as a fascist, a cult leader, and an anti-Semite.(8 footnotes here) [...] LaRouche has run for the Democratic nomination for President in every election year since 1980, including in 1992 while he was in prison, a record of eight attempts. Generally, electoral support for the LaRouche Movement has been inconsequential, despite the fact that LaRouche has received some support in Democratic presidential primaries; the zenith of electoral support for LaRouche's movement may have been the 1986 Democratic Party primary in Illinois, in which two of his followers were nominated for statewide office. LaRouche was sentenced to 15 years imprisonment in 1988 for conspiracy, mail fraud, and tax code violations, but continued his political activities from behind bars until his release in 1994 on parole.
Although LaRouche has no formal qualifications, he has written extensively on economic, scientific, political, and cultural topics as part of his political views. Critics regard him as a conspiracy theorist, crackpot, attention-seeker and political extremist, while Chip Berlet, Dennis King, and others have described him as a fascist, a cult leader, and an anti-Semite.(8 footnotes here) [...]
LaRouche has run for the Democratic nomination for President in every election year since 1980, including in 1992 while he was in prison, a record of eight attempts. Generally, electoral support for the LaRouche Movement has been inconsequential, despite the fact that LaRouche has received some support in Democratic presidential primaries; the zenith of electoral support for LaRouche's movement may have been the 1986 Democratic Party primary in Illinois, in which two of his followers were nominated for statewide office.
LaRouche was sentenced to 15 years imprisonment in 1988 for conspiracy, mail fraud, and tax code violations, but continued his political activities from behind bars until his release in 1994 on parole.
Also, Weimar might be considered a special case in that the Weimar Republic inherited a severely weakenend financial system (losing a war does that) while at the same time having to shoulder the burden of large reparations. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
but my question is really trying to test the strength of his convictions. I hope that Jerome has not been following this strategy on $100 oil over the last years--that would have been a catastrophe for sure. You have to be right on the timing on the kind of bets i'm talking about--not just the final answer. I also believe $100 oil would be reached, but the people that will do well on the investment side on this one, will also be able to call the timing. I certainly can not.
www.larouchepub.com/graphics/2006/3317inflation_graph.jpg
It has a caption as well. Anyone care to explain what's happening in the commodities markets? (I assume the chart refers to industrial metals and petro primarily, but not sure.)
If this continues for months, aren't we looking at real hell?
