The barometre will regularly poll voting intentions. A list of candidates was given (see Jérôme's post) with a choice of five possible PS candidates in the first round of the election:
Those five seem reasonably the most likely contenders within the PS. Obviously, however, the polling institute's choice of candidates, overall and PS, influences the results.
The second-round voting intentions were Royal 51%, Sarkozy 49% of votes cast (No vote cast = 14%.)
More interesting in my eyes is the table of voting transfer from Round One to Round Two. From which it appears, to summarize, that Royal would get significantly better support from the far left than Sarkozy from the far right -- only 66% of first-round Le Pen voters would vote Sarko in Round Two, which would seem to indicate the failure (for the moment) of Sarko's vote-fishing on the xenophobic right.
But this is only a poll, and only one poll, and far from the election...
Looks like a resounding success for his "Look, I'm a leftie!" campaign.
Royal's support on the left is interesting. She pulls voters away from the extreme left in Round One, and gets a good transfer from that sector in Round Two.
