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by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 12:11:50 AM EST
Guardian: Chávez seeks to peg oil at $50 a barrel

· Price could see Venezuela producing for 200 years
· Country's reserves may exceed Saudi Arabia's

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is poised to launch a bid to transform the global politics of oil by seeking a deal with consumer countries which would lock in a price of $50 a barrel.

A long-term agreement at that price could allow Venezuela to count its huge deposits of heavy crude as part of its official reserves, which Caracas says would give it more oil than Saudi Arabia.
"We have the largest oil reserves in the world, we have oil for 200 years." Mr Chávez told the BBC's Newsnight programme in an interview to be broadcast tonight. "$50 a barrel - that's a fair price, not a high price."

The price proposed by Mr Chávez is about $15 a barrel below the current global level but a credible long-term agreement at about $50 a barrel could have huge implications for Venezuela's standing in the international oil community.

According to US sources, Venezuela holds 90% of the world's extra heavy crude oil - deposits which have to be turned into synthetic light crude before they can be refined and which only become economic to operate with the oil price at about $40 a barrel. Newsnight cites a report from the US Energy Information Administrator, Guy Caruso, suggesting Venezuela could have more than a trillion barrels of reserves.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 12:14:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That would actually be an excellent, excellent deal for the West, in the long run.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 03:51:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Expect another coup attempt soon.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 04:40:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can see why it's a good deal for us, but what's his motive for doing so. Surely he would really want prices to rise and improve his economy ? The world still has to buy the oil, however difficult to refine. There's nowhere else for us to go.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 06:22:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I did wonder that, but my guess is that if a long term agreement is formed, this reduces the incentive for the US to mess about with the internal politics of Venezuala, which from Chavez personal point of view makes life a lot simpler.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 06:57:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because by increasing the officially tally of reserves, he would be able to sell more oil while staying within the OPEC agreements.
by asdf on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 08:40:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A much better deal for Western countries would be to understand that oil is an unreliable source of energy whose proceeds go mostly to the wrong people, which promote corruption at home and abroad, and which push us into stupid and counterproductive foreign policies, and that it's a much better to get rid of it entirely.

I, for one, welcome the $300 barrel of oil ...
by Francois in Paris on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 08:43:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I prefer the 90-120 $ band. The perfect price for a smooth transition.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 05:47:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I want to see your underlying model.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 05:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wild guess.

The present one is not enough to kick it out completely.

150$ dollars would make groceris double price.. it will get to make a dent on wages and we would think all the sky falls over our heads
90-120 seems a comfortable band whcih cna be achieved win a couple of years ina smoothly way. We would get rid of the big cars and introdcue hybrids to compensate the high price. Good enough for a wake-up call and good enough to make gas more expensive comapre with nuclear and wind...but not high enough to scare th ehell out of everybody.

Wild guess.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 05:54:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Independent: Rice and Straw make surprise visit in effort to break government stalemate

Condoleezza Rice and Jack Straw flew together to Baghdad yesterday on a surprise visit aimed at accelerating the formation of a new government in Iraq, which could halt the slide towards civil war.

The two officials headed straight to Iraq from north-west England, where the US Secretary of State had been hosted by Mr Straw on a visit to the UK which was dominated by protests. Anti-war protesters staged noisy demonstrations outside every event in Liverpool and in the Foreign Secretary's Blackburn constituency during their two-day tour.

Yesterday the demonstrations continued as anti-war protesters gathered in Parliament Square.

On their way to Baghdad, the two stressed the urgent need for a government of national unity that they hope will include members of the minority Sunni community, who were the big losers in the Iraq elections last December.

"We're going to urge that the negotiations be wrapped up," Ms Rice told reporters on the plane. "There is significant international concern about the time the formation of this government is taking, and therefore we believe and we will be urging the Iraqi leaders we see to press ahead more quickly," Mr Straw said.
A Foreign Office official denied that the two would deliver an ultimatum to the current Prime Minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, to stand down. Mr Jaafari, widely considered to have been an ineffectual interim leader, has had his name put forward by Shia leaders to stay on at the head of a sovereign Iraqi government.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 12:21:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See Dood Abides's take on this...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 03:52:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian: Iran fires naval missile into nuclear debate

Iran sent a bellicose message to the west yesterday amid the delicate diplomacy surrounding its suspected nuclear weapons programme, by firing what it called the world's fastest underwater missile.

Coming amid a week of Iranian war games in the Gulf, yesterday's test appeared to raise the stakes in the nuclear stand-off, which entered a new phase last week after the UN security council gave the Islamic regime 30 days to halt uranium enrichment activities or face possible punishment. Iran says it will not abandon its nuclear programme, which it says is peaceful.

State television footage showed a missile, fired from a ship, obliterating a target after travelling rapidly just below the water's surface.

The missile, said to have a top speed of 225mph, carries a powerful warhead designed to destroy large submarines, said General Ali Fadavi, deputy head of Iran's navy. He added: "Even if enemy warship sensors identify the missile, no warship can escape from this missile because of its high speed."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 12:22:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mark Twain


War is God's way to teach Americans some geography

Next lesson: the Hormuz Straits...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 03:53:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Juan Cole mentioned the other day that sinking a single supertanker in the Straits would block it.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 05:24:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However, if the world oil price rises because the Gulf gets into difficulty, wouldn't any American politician with strong links to the oil industry make a killing off the windfall profits ?

All those Hallliburton profits must have only whetted their appetite for ripping off the world.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 06:30:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Into nuclear debate?

I find it unjustifiable innuendo that the British press (2 out of 2 in my sample so far) chooses to point out that "it is not known whether the torpedo can carry a nuclear warhead".

Considering that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear warhead for the next 5 years (as even the US acknowledges), that is fearmongering: it plants the idea in the reader's mind that the point of the torpedo development is to use it for nuclear weapons.

Conventional skirmishes in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea following a US air strike seems more plausible.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 05:24:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
5 years minimum to obtain an explosive device. As to weaponizing it efficiently into a missile like that one...

But the missile doesn't sound as if nuclear would even be a necessary or useful option. A conventional warhead into the side of a supertanker would do...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 05:55:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you know we're dealing with a madman?! Since when did "useful" come into such calculations?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 06:05:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Five years.

Don't you mean 45 minutes ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 06:31:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
45 minutes is the lenght of the abridged version, for the general public.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 06:46:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC: Iran tests 'super-fast' torpedo (3 April 2006)
It is said to travel at 360km/h (233mph), three to four times faster than most conventional torpedos.

Wikipedia: Supercavitation
In 1977, Soviet engineers developed the first projectile to use supercavitation: the VA-111 Shkval ("Squall") torpedo. This can travel at 230 mph (100 m/s) underwater, compared to the top speed of about 80 mph (35 m/s) for conventional aquatic craft, but it is reportedly not steerable. Even faster speeds of about 310 mph (ca. 140 m/s) and higher have also been rumored. News of the device reached the West in the 1990s.

The Naval Undersea Warfare Center in Newport, Rhode Island, USA is now also working on the phenomenon.

Hmmm, Russian technology transfer?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 07:34:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian: Return my work, says Guantánamo poet

The Americans can't return the three years that Abdul Rahim Muslim Dost lost, locked in a cell in Guantánamo Bay. But they could at least give back his poetry.

"Please help," said Dost, who says he penned 25,000 lines of verse during his long imprisonment. "Those words are very precious to me. My interrogators promised I would get them back. Still I have nothing."
The lost poems are the final indignity for Dost, a softly spoken Afghan whom the US military flew home last year, finally believing his pleas of innocence.

Accused of being an al-Qaida terrorist, Dost had been whisked from his home in Peshawar, northern Pakistan, in November 2001. Five months later he was shackled, blindfolded and flown to Cuba. Wearing an orange jumpsuit and trapped inside a mesh cage, the Pashtun poet crafted his escape through verse. "I would fly on the wings of my imagination," he recalled. "Through my poems I would travel the world, visiting different places. Although I was in a cage I was really free."

Inmates were forbidden pens or papers during Dost's first year in captivity. So he found a novel solution - polystyrene teacups. "I would scratch a few lines on to a cup with a spoon. If you held it up to the light you could read it," he said. "But when the guards collected the trash they threw them away."

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 12:24:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Süddeutsche Zeitung: The 'Farce' of America's Military Tribunals

According to this article from German newspaper Sued Deutsche, in the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay, the U.S. carries its suspicions into cross examinations with prisoners. The transcripts show, according to the daily, that no matter what is said by prisoners, it is regarded as suspicious.

In the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay the U.S. government seeks to strip the rights of hundreds of people. There has been no comparable undertaking in the history of the modern constitutional State.

The U.S. insists that in order to protect itself from the alleged terrorists who have been sitting in Guantanamo for years, it has no alternative. U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has called them "the worst of the worst;" recently U.S. Ambassador William Timken confirmed to the Germans: "As long as terrorists plan and carry out horrible attacks, no responsible government would release them to try again."

It is a new category of person that lives in Guantanamo:  "enemy combatants," who allegedly belong to the Taliban or al-Qaeda.  They are considered neither criminals nor prisoners of war.  The site was selected outside the American mainland because the government wanted a place that was not subject to American courts. The Supreme Court of the U.S. has already contradicted this, though pending court cases could last for years.

Whether the prisoners were correctly classified as enemy combatants has so far been judged only by the so-called "Combatant Status Review Tribunals," which examined the cases of all of the occupants of the camp.  The transcripts of these hearings were made publicly available on March 3rd because a news agency petitioned for their release. [Testimony of Detainees Before the Combatant Status Review Tribunal].

The more than 5,000 pages from the records of the hearings offer what so far is the deepest insight into the Guantanamo system, and it has never been so clear what a farce the so-called Tribunal is. Even the name "Tribunal" is misleading: in judgement sat 3 members of the U.S. military.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 12:26:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Teshreen: 'Neo-con Administration' Encourages Rebellion in Sudan

Is the U.S. Plotting a 'Sudan adventure' to provide cover for an embarrassing Iraqi retreat? According to this op-ed article from Syria's State controlled Tishreen, the defeated "neo-con administration" of George W. Bush sees beleaguered Sudan and its ample oil resources as low-hanging fruit, and is using every tool available to sabotage a negotiated solution to the crisis in Darfur.

The Western Sudanese province of Darfur is still a bleeding wound on the Sudanese body, and it seems that it will keep on bleeding for quite some time to come. This is the feeling you get from the difficult negotiations in the Nigerian capital of Abuja. The Sudanese government is also facing accusations from the foreign exporters of Democracy. These accusations range from stubbornness at the negotiating table to genocide on the ground.

The United States not only accuses Sudan, but is brandishing new sanctions through the Darfur Accountability Act. But America's scheming in the name of democracy, what it calls constructive chaos and preventive strikes, is really just a Satanic American plot through which the U.S. wants to devour the area before others have a bite of its petroleum bounty.

Events are rapidly developing in Sudan, including increasing tensions on the border with Chad - which could lead to a full scale war and have a negative impact on negotiations to end the rebellion in Darfur.

There are many issues contributing to instability in Sudan: harsh words exchanged between the government and leaders of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Sudan [SPLA] due to the slow application of a 2005 peace agreement for Southern Sudan; expectations of solving a rebellion in the Blue Nile area, [where there is significant support for the SPLA]; and wild swings in relations with Eritrea. For all these reasons, Sudan faces domestic instability that threatens to tear it apart. And Sudan is passing through a phase which might dangerously affect others. But Arab countries far from Sudan only watch, as neighboring Arab countries fail to do what they should.

Sudan is at a crossroads. The catastrophe prepared by the Americans and which now threatens the Arab Nation is an old plan that has been revived, the application of which varies depending on American interests and hegemony. It is the smell of oil that drives the U.S. to rip Sudan and its neighbors asunder along tribal and religious lines. And Sudan's share of America's evil intent is very large indeed. The U.S. administration is using (through its intelligence apparatus) human rights organizations, along with the civil society, to weigh Sudan down with accusations, reports and testimonies, which are to pave the way for military operations based on the legitimacy of such information.


by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 12:29:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When will we drop the pretense that a Hegemon is an "Honest Broker"?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 05:25:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Al-Sharq: Fighting Iran's Battles Takes its Toll on U.S. Interests

Could it be that the United States and that founding member of the Axis of Evil, Iran, have been in league for years? To add insult to injury, according to this op-ed article from Qatar's Arabic-language Al-Sharq, the obvious Iran-U.S. alliance has worked out great for Tehran and India, but calamitously for 'the American fighter.'

I was sure that the American war launched against both Iraq and Afghanistan, was primarily an American proxy war to defend Iranian and Indian interests. But it has often been difficult for one to reveal such convictions, especially around anyone who doubted the matter. For some Islamists have come to equate expressing doubt about Iran's Holocaust [historical antipathy toward the West and America] with doubting the pillars of religion. If it weren't for this, it might be possible to study and discuss the issue.

When you defy this type of person, for politics can be both hidden and obvious, you learn the truth of an Iranian proverb that tells of someone who steals a rooster and places it inside his coat, under his arm. The rooster's tail sticks out from under the flap of the coat, but the thief swears with a binding oath that he didn't steal it, even though the rooster immediately refutes him. So what do we trust - the sworn oath or the rooster's tail? Here, we have two choices: to trust American and Iranian bluster [read: what they say], or trust the mutual interests and agreement between them [read: what they do].

We are fed up - and so are all of those who watch, listen, and anyone else paying attention to the Iranian nuclear issue and Washington's opposition to it -with the broken record of Iran's stubbornness, refusal, and provocation, and America's apparently unlimited patience, that remind us of the patience of Job [] (prayers and peace be upon him). It is as if I am imagining sometimes that the goal of all of the media "clamor" (in the words of our Egyptian brothers), is meant to do nothing but convince TV watchers and newspaper readers that Iran is still loyal, and remains pledged to oppose the Great Satan. Come on! Let's be realistic and admit that the Great Satan is really the Great Ally and faithful friend, at a time when faithfulness and friendship are rare.

LET US COUNT THE WAYS

  1. The fall of the Shah [] was achieved when the Iranian army, which had been the fifth largest army in the world and subservient to American and Western political interests, remained neutral and allowed [The Ayatollah] Khomeini to come to power without spilling one drop of blood. At the same time, we were seeing every murderous war that Washington inspired - overtly and in secret - to prevent the coming to power of its former allies the Afghan mujahideen - after the withdrawal of the Soviet occupation.

  2. The conclusion of the Iran-Contra Gate [] transaction with the Great Satan, which included the sale of American weapons, then the story of the shipment of Israeli weapons to Iran.

  3. Iran standing with Washington in every ditch. In Afghanistan, Tehran didn't recognize the Taliban government, whereas it immediately recognized the Afghani government that came with the American occupation. Iranian officials, with former President Rafsanjani [still a major player in Tehran] at their head, announced that if it wasn't for Tehran, Kabul and Baghdad would not have fallen [to the U.S.], and that we must not forget that the first landing of American forces in Afghanistan was on board Iranian aircraft.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 12:30:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't buy it. This is a case of my enemy's enemy is my friend (US and Iran v. Arabs and Sunnis) as well as all my enemies must be banding together against me (Sunni Arab seeing Western Christians and Persian Shiites in league).

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 05:34:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NYT: Car Parts Maker Moves to Break Its Union Deals

DETROIT, March 31 -- Delphi, the nation's biggest auto parts maker, on Friday asked a federal judge for permission to throw out some of its labor agreements, a move that could cost 20,000 union workers their jobs and leave thousands of others with less than half their current wages.

Delphi, which is operating in bankruptcy, wants the judge's permission to impose sharply lower wages and benefits on six unions, setting up a confrontation that its largest union, the United Automobile Workers, said could lead to a lengthy strike.

A strike could also cripple General Motors, which spun off Delphi in 1999 and remains its biggest customer. And any harm to G.M. could eviscerate the U.A.W.'s own influence as one of the nation's most socially progressive and powerful unions, while accelerating the slide of the American auto industry.

Delphi said it would close or sell all but 8 of its 29 plants in the United States and cut 28,500 positions around the world. Beyond the 20,000 of its 33,100 hourly jobs in the United States that Delphi plans to cut, another 8,500 salaried jobs worldwide are to be eliminated.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 01:24:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If this passes, I am sure the CEO of Delphi will get a nice multimillion $ premium for his great work! <snark>
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 01:25:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why did you put "snark" in there. It is simply fact.
by asdf on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 08:43:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is really sad state of affairs. I was in Detroit last week on business, and the city is gloomier than I can ever recall seeing it. Maybe it's just anecdotal?
The bottom line is, the CEO of Delphi just like the CEO of GM had to be fired a long long time ago. These companies do no good for any stakeholders at this time.

Mikhail from SF
by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 3rd, 2006 at 02:31:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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