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Chavez wants oil to remain around $50, while the Iranians would be happy to have $100 oil or higher if the going gets tough with the US.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 06:32:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No , he says he wants "at least" 50. Being smart, he says that he can live with 50 if it is guaranteed to him by the West, and he thus appears generous (or will appear in retrospect "see the deal I was offering you back then"...)

I doubt that he will mind if it goes up more.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 06:37:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't dealing directly with the consumer countries undermine OPEC, and also qualify as "a conspiracy against oil" (since this is heavy tars that we're talking about in Venezuela) in the words of the Iranian minister?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 06:43:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To some extent, you are right. But note that Venezuela and Iran have always been the two most hawkish members of OPEC, pushing for higher prices.

At this point, a hard $50 floor would have value for the producers - it guarantees them a minimum (and already pretty high) level of income, and thus predictability in their budget, which would allow them to make nice promises to their population and actually fulfill them. And guaranteeing a floor does not precluse higher prices.

And of course, Chavez is making this offer safe in the knowledge that it will never be accepted by the West, so his "generosity" costs him nothing.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 08:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, this has no effect on peak oil, correct?  Just who makes the most money during the race to the bottom?
by raincat100 on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 11:48:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why can't Venezuela start selling $50 synthetic oil futures, then?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 06:45:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To make the investment profitable in that sector, you probably need more than the 5 years or so of future markets that exist today - 10-15 years of guaranteed prices would likely be required, and the market for that doesn't exist.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 08:35:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It doesn't exist because nobody has tried, right? Could Venezuela get in touch with the exchanges and offer itself as a market maker for an experimental run of 10-year futures?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 08:38:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But who would be the counterparty?
i.e. who would accept to commit today to pay no less than 50$/bl for the next 10 years, for specified volumes?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 09:22:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If, as you showed in part 24, 5-year forwards are at $65,

I find it hard to believe that there isn't a market for 10-year forwards at $50.

For instance, Sweden has said they want to be oil-free within 20 years. It would make sense for them to lock in supplies for the intervening 20 years.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 09:29:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree that it would make sense to buy such a contract, and you identify a potential entity that could do it.

It simply has not been done yet.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 12:31:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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