European Tribune

Display:
No , he says he wants "at least" 50. Being smart, he says that he can live with 50 if it is guaranteed to him by the West, and he thus appears generous (or will appear in retrospect "see the deal I was offering you back then"...)

I doubt that he will mind if it goes up more.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 06:37:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't dealing directly with the consumer countries undermine OPEC, and also qualify as "a conspiracy against oil" (since this is heavy tars that we're talking about in Venezuela) in the words of the Iranian minister?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 06:43:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To some extent, you are right. But note that Venezuela and Iran have always been the two most hawkish members of OPEC, pushing for higher prices.

At this point, a hard $50 floor would have value for the producers - it guarantees them a minimum (and already pretty high) level of income, and thus predictability in their budget, which would allow them to make nice promises to their population and actually fulfill them. And guaranteeing a floor does not precluse higher prices.

And of course, Chavez is making this offer safe in the knowledge that it will never be accepted by the West, so his "generosity" costs him nothing.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 08:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, this has no effect on peak oil, correct?  Just who makes the most money during the race to the bottom?
by raincat100 on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 11:48:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why can't Venezuela start selling $50 synthetic oil futures, then?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 06:45:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To make the investment profitable in that sector, you probably need more than the 5 years or so of future markets that exist today - 10-15 years of guaranteed prices would likely be required, and the market for that doesn't exist.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 08:35:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It doesn't exist because nobody has tried, right? Could Venezuela get in touch with the exchanges and offer itself as a market maker for an experimental run of 10-year futures?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 08:38:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But who would be the counterparty?
i.e. who would accept to commit today to pay no less than 50$/bl for the next 10 years, for specified volumes?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 09:22:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If, as you showed in part 24, 5-year forwards are at $65,

I find it hard to believe that there isn't a market for 10-year forwards at $50.

For instance, Sweden has said they want to be oil-free within 20 years. It would make sense for them to lock in supplies for the intervening 20 years.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 09:29:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree that it would make sense to buy such a contract, and you identify a potential entity that could do it.

It simply has not been done yet.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 12:31:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Recommended Diaries
After Democracy
by marco - Dec 3
30 comments

Not quite the 'perfect fix'?
by djhabakkuk - Dec 3
2 comments

Bugger Thy Neighbour
by redstar - Dec 3
104 comments

Beggar Thy Neighbour
by redstar - Dec 3
58 comments

Friedmanite Folly and the Mugabe Option
by ChrisCook - Dec 2
42 comments

On Rhetoric
by rg - Dec 3
14 comments

Obama commits to Middle East peace
by shergald - Dec 2
5 comments

Did the U.S. 2005 Bankruptcy Reform cause the world financial ...
by NBBooks - Dec 2
8 comments

Recent Diaries
Debates
Campaigns
Occasional Series