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Venezuala needs considerable refining infrastructure to be created before they can even think about selling this stuff and that, with all the best will in the world, cannot be in place for 3 - 4 years. Refineries don't come ready made out of the box.

So Iran has our attention and can push the price where it likes and nothng Chavez says about the future will change that present.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 07:51:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But Iran won't get nukes for another 5 years... I see a strategic partnership between Bush and Chavez in the horizon. </snark>

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 07:56:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bush needs his war much sooner than within 5 years. Before the November mid-terms most likely.

Expect a mid-october "suprise" invasion. Early enough to affect the polls with patriotic fervour, late enough that it cannot possibly start going wrong before the polls close.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 08:01:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The US has a substantial strategic oil reserve, but no gasoline reserve (we saw this when, after Katrina, the US asked the EU to release part of its strategic gasoline reserve). The US could build a strategic gasoline reserve in the intervening months, as well as fill its oil reserve to capacity, as a way to weather the storm for as long as it takes to take control of the Hormuz Straits.


guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 08:12:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"as a way to weather the storm for as long as it takes to take control of the Hormuz Straits."

Which will take about as long as it's taking to pacify Iraq no doubt.


keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 09:09:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
pretty much, yeah.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 09:20:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is no way on Earth that the US can reliably control Hormuz for any length of time. The only way to guarantee control would be an army of occupation and a regime change in Iran. And that's not likely to happen.

Don't forget that Iran has medium range missiles, and would be perfectly capable of doing remote damage to US land and sea forces in Iraq, Turkey and other areas in the Middle East if it decides to get defensive. It would take an incredibly successful and coordinated initial barrage from the US to remove that capability. And that's not likely to happen either.

I think it's more likely that this whole pantomime is yet another cynical move to drive up prices. Bush probably doesn't much care that it will ruin the US as long as his Texas and Saudi buddies are getting richer. He really does seem to be that stupid, disconnected and cynical.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 09:39:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I actually think regime change is likely: the current supreme leader is a moderate as I understand it. They do have extremists as well.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 09:47:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU shipped gasoline to the US after Katrina?

Probably a stupid question. I just don't understand what releasing strategic gasoline reserve means, but would like to learn.


Atlantic Review - A press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni

by Atlantic Review (bl -at- atlanticreview dot org) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 10:04:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
After the 1970's oil shocks, the EU introduced a requirement for all countries to keep 60 (?) days worth of gasoline supply in stock as a strategic reserve.

The US has a strategic crude oil reserve, which Bush filled up to capacity for the first time in many years at some point in his first term - must have been in 2002, but I don't remember.

The Village Voice: Pumping Us Dry (September 2nd 2005)

Katrina tragedy is an absolutely perfect storm for oil companies
...
If the companies can't increase their refined products, they could end up turning not to the petroleum reserve but to the European Union. While the U.S. keeps a supply of crude oil in its strategic reserve, the Europeans maintain a stock of gasoline as well as crude. There has been speculation that in a really tight situation, the EU might be called on to export some of that supply to the U.S.
Read about it also on A Fistful of Euros (same date).

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 10:12:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sweden has 90 days supplies officially (down from 180 during the cold war). But a friend of mine took a look and concluded that since most of the requirement is privatised (if you use much you are obligated to hold some in reserve) and their is no inspections there are probably not anywhere close to 90 days of actual reserves.

Don't know if it is the same in the rest of EU.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 11:05:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, okay, thank you.
So the EU released the gasoline to the market. This helped to get the price of gasoline down?

I didn't know gasoline was traded internationally as well.


Atlantic Review - A press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni

by Atlantic Review (bl -at- atlanticreview dot org) on Tue Apr 4th, 2006 at 12:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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