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Well, I wasn't advocating it for people like me! ;-)

I think the best investing I'll manage is probably a stout pair of walking shoes for the incoming oil crisis.

Hmmm, This link indicates that hedge funds only total around 1 trillion dollars. (Roughly $750 bn concentrated in the top 200 and $75 bn in the top 5.)

That's a bit smaller than I had heard.

I'm not sure how leverage plays into these figures either.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 07:25:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about inflation-indexed government bonds?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 07:29:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was just snarking really, I'm fairly positive a good investment strategy is "see what Metatone does and then pick something, anything else.."

However, prseumably inflation indexed bonds of a government you believe will still be here at the end of the crisis are one of the safest ways to store money?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 07:32:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The only reason I'm lukewarm about the idea is that I'm pretty confident our governments are cooking the inflation statistics. But at least if the going gets rough and the government decides to inflate their way out of the mess, your investment is protected. Now, is it?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 07:37:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, they are doing their best to keep energy and housing out of the inflation statistics in various places.

So, I guess it depends on how much energy and housing matter to you... ;-)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 07:39:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even beyond that, they are cooking the books.

But help me out here. Property values have been going up by about 10% per year for a few years now [I just happened to deduce from the council tax booklet I got from the borough the alleged 1991 value of the property I rent, and compared with the current local prices...], so the mortgage payments for a newly blught property have been going up by the same amount (roughly) so rent payments for equivalent properties have also been going up by 10% a year. And about 1/3 of people's after-tax income is taken by housing expenses, so there goes over 3% inflation. Am I wrong?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 07:45:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, of course you're not wrong in principle.

But, I would guess that the cooking involves some sleight of hand about the amount of after-tax income spent on housing. That presumably is the key assumption.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 08:49:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is something definitely not right about assuming that people spend 1/3 of their income on housing and that 1/3 fraction remains constant... Unless people are also downsizing their living quarters to keep their housing expenses within bounds, which is a definite possibility.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 08:52:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, but surely the downsizing only works properly in the rental sector (and even then there are contract restrictions.) If you are paying back a mortgage, your flexiblity to downsize is limited by the ease of selling your house?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 09:13:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your mortgage payments are fixed and not affected by inflation (again, to a first approximation).

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 09:46:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the best investing I'll manage is probably a stout pair of walking shoes for the incoming oil crisis.

I can just see the City of London choked with bikes like Far Eastern countries are now. Just think of the air quality - ah bliss. Suddenly the thought of $100 oil just makes me think "Bring it on" - didn't somebody else say that once ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 07:49:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't understand why anyone would want to drive in London. The other weekend we had friends visiting and they insisted on renting a car to come in from the airport (never mind the airport bus stops 15 minutes away from our home). They took two or three times as long to get to our place than they would otherwise. Then they ended up stranded on a tesco parking lot for hours at a time twice, and we took 3 hours each way for a day out in Brighton (it takes under 2 hours if you take the tube and train). A friend of mine quite aptly calls London "the black hole" as it is almost impossible to get out of it.

Why? Why?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 08:00:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because you're free in a car. Independent, soaring above the masses and their public transport.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 08:15:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Er... I'm looking down on them from the upper deck of my double decker. Our 4-year old has that all figured out, he loves it up there.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 08:16:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think anyone who drives in London is mad, or drives to Brighton - get a network card for the train (£9 return).

I'm with Migeru, public transport is the only way to get around the South East.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 09:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, if you want to move at your leisure around the Brighton area but not in Brighton proper, a car would come in handy. But then you'd be better off taking the train to Gatwick and renting a car from there.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 3rd, 2006 at 09:54:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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