Not at all off-topic -- because the answer is really in turnout. The PS was totally demoralized Jospin's 3rd place and in the weeks and months that followed, the PS base (which is only about 18-20% to begin with, and which had turned out in low numbers on April 22) lost interest in the legislative elections. This is entirely anecdotal but I know a lot of PS or other center-left parties supporters who, like Alex above, didn't vote on April 22 and then did vote for Chirac (ie, against LePen) only to then decide to stay home in June.

This is important for the 2007 election because it will be decided in large part by turnout -- which side (presuming its Sarko vs Sego in the 2nd round) can pick up more support from within his or her own "political family" (ie, non-UMP on right, non-PS on left). WHats impressive about Sego right now is that while she's running, thematically, to the center of the left (emphasizing family values, respect for the state and at least making noises about 3rd way economics), she is showing strong support from "DDS" voters who are likely to vote Green, Besancenot, PCF or not vote in the 1st round.

Sarko of course is basing his entire campaign on picking up Villiers and even LePen 1st-round voters in the 2nd round.

So if the Clearstream scandal continues to blow up, as now appears likely, and takes out Villepin and demoralizes or disgusts the harder right of the electorate, it will certainly hurt Sarkozy in the 2nd round (and the right in the legislatives that will follow).

This could of course help LePen but I wonder if it will help Bayrou, who for years has tried to position himself as a "moral" candidate and man of conscience on the right.