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Well, I'm not an economist either.

But what you say suggests that consumers must spend more. And to do that you must put more money into their pockets and give them a feeling of confidence that there is more on the way. Overcome their prudence.

This is done either by paying them more (unpopular under shareholder capitalism) or by lending them more (very popular with banks and credit organisations).

The former leads to wage inflation, the latter leads to credit spirals and the sort of bubbles we see elsewhere. So, despite the pressure for the latter as the instrument of choice, neither represents the perfect solution. I know it's unpopular with free-market nincompoops but government must artificially balance the two for the well-being of the overall economy.

Course it is possible to have both go out of control at the same time, but that really needs IMF-level advice to achieve with any certainty.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 11:48:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why do you think "consumer confidence" is measured, reported and worried about?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 11:51:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just thought it was one of those meaningless bs things journalists invent cos they don't really understand what they're talking about.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 11:55:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the postmodern economy nothing matters most that consumer confidence.

Also, class stratification takes the form of investors/consumers/outcasts.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 12:07:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
er... small crossing of wires there... nothing matters more or consumer confidence matters the most.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 12:08:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or in 133t speak: "it's teh matt3rz."

-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Thu Jun 1st, 2006 at 12:58:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
what you say suggests that consumers must spend more
"must" under the premises of neoliberal ideology. I think we'd be fine encouraging savings and investment, and with government spending to pick up the demand slack, funded by taxes on property for wealth redistribution.

But then again, I'm a dangerous pinko commie, or something.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 12:16:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
.. you have to give us/me some insight about the real true working of an economy.

After all it is the believe in the coin you are using...but the dollar/euro you are useing is only backed by confidence.. the same confidence that can make you buy or save. Worst,  what you save now is basically in the bank.. so it really does not exist...You are supposed to be able to recover .. but if every body tries to get at the same time .. well it is like injecting a lot of currency in the economy....inflation?

Basically the economy is a full system of believes as big as religion. It seems like you ahve to balance different believes so that everybosy is roughly happy

When you spend and you are on debt..are you sure you will ever pay.. but then if everybody stops paying nobody pays.. and there is a recession? not really.. you can create a bubble...and even create more money... is inflation going up printing more money...well are you sure? you can put the money you generate in debt.. for future use.

It is all very confusing for a physicist...so Migeru.. is economy hopeless or is there any way to make sense without the impression that we live in a symbolic illusion?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 01:12:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How am I going to give you (all) what I don't have?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 03:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I have an explanation for the modern inflexible insistence on reducing monetary policy to controlling inflation.

There is a "money fallacy" whereby people think they are progressing if they make more money in nominal terms, not in real terms. If the cost of living dropped by 10% peoplle should be happy to take a 5% pay cut, but they probably prefer to have a 5% raise even though the cost of living goes by 10%. This is because the cost of living is an intangible while the numerical amount of your income is tangible.

One way of getting rid of the money fallacy is to educate everyone about the difference between nominal and real value and how to do financial planning on that basis, taking into account the undertainty of future inflation. The other way to get rid of the money fallacy is to keep inflation constant, since that way the way people actually reason about money will more closely approximate reality, and there  will be reduced inflation risk for everyone.

Just a thought.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 31st, 2006 at 03:17:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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