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In your presentation there is statement that high oil prices are long term fuelled by strong economic growth. I would agree on middle term high oil prices but about 10 years and thereafter I am not certain. Current level of oil prices already fuels inflation everywhere and porr stratas are most vulnerable especially in countries like India, Pakistan, Indonesia, China. From history we know inflation and massive poverty lead to political instability and some Asian states needed extra measures like State of Emergency in India 1975-1977.
Are you sure we will not see anything like that? Current Indian government of Mr Manmohan Singh starts looking insensitive to common man plight. Nepal undergone political revolution with yet unclear results. Pakistan and Sri Lanka are unstable too. In China there are internal giant pressures.  
by FarEasterner on Sun Jun 11th, 2006 at 03:57:08 AM EST
I think it is a dual factor.

Political instability can reduce supply, but it's becoming clear that most of our growth and prosperity is built on energy, much of it as oil. If economic activity growth is to continue, which seems likely as it is the aim of all the politicians, even in China and India, then demand would seem fated to keep going up.

Once you add in the apparent running out of oil supply, demand becomes possibly the most serious part of the price equation.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jun 11th, 2006 at 08:34:34 AM EST
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