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Sir, in your story of the 15th of June ''Real Swedish jobless rate 15%' you make reference  to a report by the McKinsey Global Institute that analyses the structure of joblessness in Sweden.

While I welcome any study or story that goes beyond the normal reduction of a complicated joblessness situation to a single number it is unfair to single out Sweden without pointing out that this approach would lead to a far higher joblessness measure in any country it was applied to. A quick estimate suggests that the US would have a "de-facto joblessness" rate of about 13%, France about 18% and Ireland about 11%.

To say that the numbers "cast a pall" on Sweden's reputation is entirely unfair. Better to say that it shows how well Sweden is doing by maintaining normal joblessness rates and excellent measures in almost every other metric.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:09:23 AM EST
I don't really understand your last sentence. Otherwise it's good.

(I was surprised by your number for France - where did you find such a higher numb for disabled in France?)

btw - feel free to sign as "Editor, ET" in case you had any scruples.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:20:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
9.5% (OECD)

  • 2% ( marginally attached and involuntary part-time)

  • 4% (disability)

  • 2% (fudge factor for government programmes)

for a total of 17.5% or so.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:26:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I guessed the disabled number, I'm afraid.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:28:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This graph suggests that France's number (when compared to your 3.5% for Sweden) should be more like 1.5%:



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:34:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd rather err high than low on this one ... I'd reduce it to 2.5%.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:36:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why. That's a serious source, isn't it?

That still leaves you the choice to put 16% overall rather than 15%. Are you trying to play to their prejudices? ;-)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:48:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you trying to play to their prejudices?

Yes, a bit.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:49:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This OECD chart from their last October report gives an idea of comparative levels:

Inactivity because of illness or disability
As a percentage of population in each age group, 2003

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 10:25:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The italian number baffles me: the disability pension scheme (read southern Italy, read under false pretense) is a recurring anthem in italian (northern) newspapers. I would have guess Italy ranks among the higher invalidity rates among OECD country.

I had read some debunking and that the most invalids were in northern Italy, but nothing about the low rate country-wide.

Myth and reality?

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Thu Jun 22nd, 2006 at 02:14:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To say that the numbers "cast a pall" on Sweden's reputation is entirely unfair. In fact the numbers show that Sweden is maintaining average joblessness rates together with good ratings on almost all other metrics used to measure the heath of an economy.

Better?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:28:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about:


Sweden manages to keep its unemployment rate low and does relatively well on other joblessness rates that can be computed and on almost all other metrics used to measure the health of an economy.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:33:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wanted to directly address the "cast a pall" comment in the original story. You think I shouldn't?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:37:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh yes: use the same beginning of the paragraph - my comment was only for the end part of the sentence. Sorry I wasn't clearer.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 04:46:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent.

Maybe you could add your "of course the reason newspapers don't do this themselves is that it takes a whole morning of looking at publicly abailable data from the OECD and the  governments themselves".

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 05:41:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe that would be best omitted...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 05:42:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I am beginning to understand why I don't get my LTEs published... </snark>

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 16th, 2006 at 06:25:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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