This could all change though if (or more when) Fabius decides he doesn't care that the militants choose Royal, he's creating his own campaign. Have to see how that plays though if you get him and another or two doing this then the left side will need to be pulled back together, and Buffet would give this some credibility.
But while we're talking about the possiliblty of fracture on the left, I think it also quite possible a large fracture on the right may well open up. Sarko may be the obvious standard bearer for them, but it remains to be seen whether large segments of the French right are ready for Alain Madelin, who is who I thought I was hearing when Sarko was speaking today. Bayrou may do better than we expect, and not only Bayrou. A perfect storm like in '02 but on the right? Probably not, but I suspect the fracturing on that side may be more than we're thinking today. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Christ, is anyone not racaille? Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
I know the genre fairly well, some of my wife's family are forains and it's a core demo, imho similar to a few others (indépendants of all sorts, really) and esp in PACA it's a powerful demographic, explaining why the Front has done very well there for so long.
And Sarko plays well with these. Put Le Pen's rhetorical tone on Madelin's economic policies and there's a demographic which will be voting for Sarko instead of Le Pen.
Just a hunch. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
I'm actually thinking your other scenario about Bayrou will come to pass, especially if Sarkozy overdoes it. I'm skeptical too of Sarko's appeal when is so explicit about the neo-liberal talk as was much of what he was quoted as saying in Le Monde today. Not so sure that appeals to as many traditional RPR-style supporters as one might think - after all, Madelin polls what, 3%, tops? However, it does appeal to a certain core Le Pen supporter. Certainly not all, but many.
I'm thinking Bayrou could surprise by mopping up some of those turned off by this neo-liberal rhetoric. I'm suspecting there will be more than a few. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Also, what is Sarko's appeal? I don't understand why a country that was 70% against DeVillepin's measures would vote for him.
