I don't know what to think of this campaign: both candidates are total super-spinners saying hard-left and hard-right nonsense at the same time to cover the whole spectrum of voters. And I don't know what the voters will think of it. Only thing I'm pretty sure about: going this way, Le Pen will be on the 2nd round if he lives that old... Pierre
Unless someone like Strauss-Kahn beats Royal in the PS primary, there might be an interesting Bayrou surprise next year.
As to Le Pen, I have NO doubt whatsoever that he will be in the second round next year (and if he's dead, it will be Le Pen Jr'ette, his daughter). In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Politburo made a programme. All candidates said they 100% adhere to the programme (with their fingers crossed, and claiming "different priority rankings" like DSK). Militant vote will pick one just like they did for the constitution. Then a few more candidates will go maverick, just like for the constitution (Lang, Fabius, may be Emmanuelli or Montebourg...) Total mess. Pierre
How does the militants' vote take place? Is there a Party Congress? How long will the campaigning for the militants last? guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
This could all change though if (or more when) Fabius decides he doesn't care that the militants choose Royal, he's creating his own campaign. Have to see how that plays though if you get him and another or two doing this then the left side will need to be pulled back together, and Buffet would give this some credibility.
But while we're talking about the possiliblty of fracture on the left, I think it also quite possible a large fracture on the right may well open up. Sarko may be the obvious standard bearer for them, but it remains to be seen whether large segments of the French right are ready for Alain Madelin, who is who I thought I was hearing when Sarko was speaking today. Bayrou may do better than we expect, and not only Bayrou. A perfect storm like in '02 but on the right? Probably not, but I suspect the fracturing on that side may be more than we're thinking today. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Christ, is anyone not racaille? Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
I know the genre fairly well, some of my wife's family are forains and it's a core demo, imho similar to a few others (indépendants of all sorts, really) and esp in PACA it's a powerful demographic, explaining why the Front has done very well there for so long.
And Sarko plays well with these. Put Le Pen's rhetorical tone on Madelin's economic policies and there's a demographic which will be voting for Sarko instead of Le Pen.
Just a hunch. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
I'm actually thinking your other scenario about Bayrou will come to pass, especially if Sarkozy overdoes it. I'm skeptical too of Sarko's appeal when is so explicit about the neo-liberal talk as was much of what he was quoted as saying in Le Monde today. Not so sure that appeals to as many traditional RPR-style supporters as one might think - after all, Madelin polls what, 3%, tops? However, it does appeal to a certain core Le Pen supporter. Certainly not all, but many.
I'm thinking Bayrou could surprise by mopping up some of those turned off by this neo-liberal rhetoric. I'm suspecting there will be more than a few. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Also, what is Sarko's appeal? I don't understand why a country that was 70% against DeVillepin's measures would vote for him.
If they do, the winner has a good chance of being elected. It will get a good score in the first round (thanks to "2002 remorse" votes from many who voted leftie back then and will vote for the "useful" candidate in the first round to avoid a repeat of 2002), and a strong chance against Sarkozy, who will be dragged down by the totally discredited state of the right following the pathetic last few years.
If they don't, then we'll have dispersion of the votes on the left, and a Le Pen vs Sarkozy second round. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
On the other hand, it is true that the GSP is restrictive of necessary investments. 3% is hardly sufficient for the tasks at hand, one of which is full EU integration (and not just economic, but social as well) which, in the long run, should spur growth throughtout the Community. And suggesting that politically less than feasible budgetary choices are the only way to make room for such investments is to my mind not responsible. I would imagine there might be creative ways to make funding available in a fashion which would be growth-accountable rather than the classic mountain of butter and sea of olive oil scenarios.
I'd counsel pursuing growth first, then go after sacred cows. People tend not to notice a cow or two gone missing when the total number of cows is growing for everyone. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Absolutely.
And it doesn't need to be 25%, but a 3% target with tolerance of up to 5% or so during the natural turbulence of Euro integration, absolutely, in addition to explicit employment targetting as well. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
or the BCE must change it's policies. ... absolutely, in addition to explicit employment targetting as well.
... absolutely, in addition to explicit employment targetting as well.
And in the interim period of integration, I'd advocate helping pay for it on the new entrants' behalf. What's the point of project Europe project if not? Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Legalizing prostitution and cannabis would make the State so rich ...
I was thinking of a Seita-like approach here in France. By which the State grows the stuff, packages the stuff, sells the stuff, and on top of all that taxes the stuff (for social security or whatever other good reason they could find). And I'm not even necessarily talking about packaged joints, because that's nocive ... even chewing gum will do.
According to INSERM & SOFRES studies, there are an estimated 2 million regular cannabis smokers in France (and 3 million occasional), "regular" meaning god knows what as no quantity/regularity studies have ever been made. But judging from friends who used to be heavy smokers but who are now reasonable due to having work/children etc, I would say that regular, at an average/working age, would mean 2 joints a day.
A joint (or gum) could easily yield a 90% profit margin (including 60% tax). Sell it at 1.11 euro piece, and that's a 1 euro profit a take. Or 4 million euros a day for the State. or 1.5 billion a year on regular users only.
Ok I'm off to watch the match now, alala Togo or not Togo.
Ok now I think I should really get going.
Now in a weasselly move, the right-wing liberal VVD party decided to play nice with the government (of which they're part). The parliamentary proposal was in a direct collision course with Minister of Justice, Donner, who has been a strident opponent of anything that looks like legalisation, also claiming it would be unacceptable within the European framework. He threatened to resign if parliament would push through. Opposition parties PvdA (Labour) and others who've been working for nearly a year on the experimental project are, unsurprisingly, furious.
