Unless someone like Strauss-Kahn beats Royal in the PS primary, there might be an interesting Bayrou surprise next year.
As to Le Pen, I have NO doubt whatsoever that he will be in the second round next year (and if he's dead, it will be Le Pen Jr'ette, his daughter). In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Politburo made a programme. All candidates said they 100% adhere to the programme (with their fingers crossed, and claiming "different priority rankings" like DSK). Militant vote will pick one just like they did for the constitution. Then a few more candidates will go maverick, just like for the constitution (Lang, Fabius, may be Emmanuelli or Montebourg...) Total mess. Pierre
How does the militants' vote take place? Is there a Party Congress? How long will the campaigning for the militants last? guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
This could all change though if (or more when) Fabius decides he doesn't care that the militants choose Royal, he's creating his own campaign. Have to see how that plays though if you get him and another or two doing this then the left side will need to be pulled back together, and Buffet would give this some credibility.
But while we're talking about the possiliblty of fracture on the left, I think it also quite possible a large fracture on the right may well open up. Sarko may be the obvious standard bearer for them, but it remains to be seen whether large segments of the French right are ready for Alain Madelin, who is who I thought I was hearing when Sarko was speaking today. Bayrou may do better than we expect, and not only Bayrou. A perfect storm like in '02 but on the right? Probably not, but I suspect the fracturing on that side may be more than we're thinking today. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Christ, is anyone not racaille? Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
I know the genre fairly well, some of my wife's family are forains and it's a core demo, imho similar to a few others (indépendants of all sorts, really) and esp in PACA it's a powerful demographic, explaining why the Front has done very well there for so long.
And Sarko plays well with these. Put Le Pen's rhetorical tone on Madelin's economic policies and there's a demographic which will be voting for Sarko instead of Le Pen.
Just a hunch. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
I'm actually thinking your other scenario about Bayrou will come to pass, especially if Sarkozy overdoes it. I'm skeptical too of Sarko's appeal when is so explicit about the neo-liberal talk as was much of what he was quoted as saying in Le Monde today. Not so sure that appeals to as many traditional RPR-style supporters as one might think - after all, Madelin polls what, 3%, tops? However, it does appeal to a certain core Le Pen supporter. Certainly not all, but many.
I'm thinking Bayrou could surprise by mopping up some of those turned off by this neo-liberal rhetoric. I'm suspecting there will be more than a few. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Also, what is Sarko's appeal? I don't understand why a country that was 70% against DeVillepin's measures would vote for him.
If they do, the winner has a good chance of being elected. It will get a good score in the first round (thanks to "2002 remorse" votes from many who voted leftie back then and will vote for the "useful" candidate in the first round to avoid a repeat of 2002), and a strong chance against Sarkozy, who will be dragged down by the totally discredited state of the right following the pathetic last few years.
If they don't, then we'll have dispersion of the votes on the left, and a Le Pen vs Sarkozy second round. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
