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Applying these surplus percentages to total potential ethanol production as calculated above by Migeru, we get:

  • 30% sugar beet: 10.5 Gl x 30% = 3.15 Gl ethanol
  • 9% wheat:.......33.5 Gl x 9% = 3 Gl
  • 13% barley: ....23 Gl x 13% = 3 Gl

Rounded total potential ethanol production from surplus:

9 Gl

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 04:15:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
9 Gl ethanol = 6 Gl petrol energy equivalent

Add that to the 164 Gl of petrol and you get 173 Gl of E6 (9 Gl is 5.78% of 173 Gl), with a 170 Gl petrol energy equivalent. Therefore: the entire beet, maize, wheat and barley spare production (given export figures) would be just about sufficient to reach the 5.75% target of biofuel market share, and that's only on the petrol/ethanol side. We don't have figires for biodiesel but it seems that unless cooking (and maybe motor) oil is recycled massively, the target won't be reached on that side either.

So, change my input to say that the 2003 targets (5.75% market share) is not realistic unless a substantial amount of ethanol feedstock is diverted away from animal feed and into biofuels. Importing biofuel feedstocks or ethanol does not improve energy security.

The chickens are coming home to roost: it is not only the end of cheap energy, but of cheap meat.


Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 05:30:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have been thinking an active tax policy should be used to discourage any increase in fossil fuel consumption. Say, if the EU imports 3% more fossil fuels one year than the next, slap on a 3% increse in tax. This could be done on a fuel-by-fuel basis. So, if aviation fuel is the fastest growing fuel (just for the sake of argument) it would see the largest tax increase year-on-year. This tax should go to the EU directly, not the member states, and be earmarked for non-fossil-fuel transportation R+D and infrastructure.

But this is part of a broader transportation energy policy and beyond the scope of this consultation.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 05:41:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They do consider taxation (or relief) as part of an active policy. There's no reason not to say that fossil fuels should be taxed.

Starting with aircraft fuel, and agricultural (with incentives to switch to home-grown biodiesel, no tax on that).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 05:52:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Whether you add it to the 164 Gl or calculate 5.75% of 164 Gl, you can say the 5.75% target is possible:

if all surpluses are transformed into ethanol.

By 2010? I don't think it will happen.

After that, where is the growth potential? Only, as you say, in transforming one cheap-energy glut consumption into another. You'll get to drive your car to the supermarket only to find no cheap chicken or vast rows of yoghourt.

Either that, or unsustainable farming methods, or massive food imports.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 05:45:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What fraction of internal use is for animal feed?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 05:49:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  • maize 82%
  • wheat 47%
  • barley 66%

Sugar beet pulp is also used for animal feed, I'll see if I can find that.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 05:58:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sugar is not clear, they say 2 Mt of white sugar in animal feed, which is weird but possible. (expensive).

I haven't got a number for sugar pulp (by-product) use in animal feed. No time to get one now.

The main thing is animal feed is the principal use of maize and barley, and common wheat for about half.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:07:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, this is very interesting.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:10:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
maize: 82% of 19 Gl = 15.5 Gl
wheat: 47% of 33.5 Gl = 15.5 Gl
barley: 66% of 23 Gl = 15 Gl

Now isn't that interesting?

I think the EU agricultural sector is in for a shakeup.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:19:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I doubt it. Reducing beef and dairy gradually is on the cards anyway. Otherwise agri-business is not ready to change sectors and modes of production that fast. It would take a decade or two to switch those volumes from animals to ethanol.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:38:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That was going to be my question as well.

The sound bite: "to reach energy security: let's stop eating meat"

(I still have that example from somewhere - but I don't know if it's true - that you actually use more oil going somewhere by bike than by car if you have eaten meat only, because so many oil calories are needed to get a calorie in your food (7 to 1 or something)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:13:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Rapeseed
  • total area: 4.5 Mha
  • yield : 1100l/ha
  • 4.5 x 1100 = 5 Gl biodiesel

Sunflower
  • total area: 2.2 Mha
  • yield: 1000l/ha
  • 2.2 x 1000 = 2.2 Gl biodiesel

Total biodiesel from crops:  7.2 Gl
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:23:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Rapeseed is given at 100% self-sufficiency, meaning all oil production is used within the EU, no surplus.

Sunflower seed has 109% self-sufficiency.

Not much room for an increase without greatly increasing area. Replacing what?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:29:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But al large fraction of the oil could be recycled. Double bang for the buck.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:31:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to my calculation above, diesel consumption was about 170 Gl per year. 7.2 Gl is 4% of 177 Gl. Biodiesel by itself won't be able to attain the 5.75% share even if all the oil is recycled. [How about olive oil? In Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece a lot of it is used for cooking and could be recycled]

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 06:34:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
7.2 Gl is the total current production, not the share available for biodiesel. Some of current production must go into biodiesel, but it's marginal. To get to 5.75% biodiesel, there would have to be very considerable increase in area. At some other crop's expense.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 10th, 2006 at 07:33:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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