European Tribune

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/22/us/22illinois.html?_r=1&ref=us&oref=slogin


Governor Plans an Energy Shift for Illinois

Pointing to high fuel costs and dependence on foreign oil, Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich wants his state to overhaul its energy sources with a strategy that experts said would be among the nation's most ambitious, including replacing half its current supply of gasoline from imported oil with that made from homegrown products in little more than a decade.

Mr. Blagojevich's aides said he would call for financial incentives to build up to 20 ethanol plants, five biodiesel plants and four facilities that would create ethanol from wastes like corn husks and wood pulp in Illinois, where five ethanol production plants operate now and where three more are under construction.

by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 09:49:08 AM EST
Let's see...

Department of Energy: Petroleum Profile: Illinois (January 2006)

# Population: 12,713,634 (2004)
# Total Petroleum Consumption: 27.3 million gallons per day (2002)
# Gasoline Consumption: 14.1 million gallons per day (2002)
# Distillate Fuel Consumption: 4.6 million gallons per day (2002)
# Liquefied Petroleum Gas Consumption: 2.3 million gallons per day (2002)
# Jet Fuel Consumption: 1.6 million gallons per day (2002)
That's 5.15e9 gallons of gasoline per year. Ethanol has 2/3 the energy content (by volume) of gasoline, so that's the equivalent of 7.7e9 gallons of ethanol per year. How much ethanol can Illinois produce? Illinois would be using its corn.

Department of Agriculture: Theoretical Ethanol Yield Calculator

Theoretical Yield in gallons of ethanol per dry ton of feedstock
Corn Grain     124.4
Corn Stover     113.0
USDA-NASS: 1997 Crop Year - Based on Production
-------------------------------- State=Illinois -------------------------------

                                      Planted Harvested
                                        Acres   Acres       Yield Production
 Rank Crop                    Unit      (000)   (000)    Per Acre   (000)

   2  Corn for Grain             Bu 11,200.00 11,050.00    129.00  1,425,450
  14  Corn for Silage           Ton       .      120.00     16.50      1,980

About 90% of the planted acreage in the state of Illinois is corn. Apparently a bushel of corn at 15% moisture weighs 56lb, but the USDA ethanol yield figures are per dry ton (2000lb)... Is 56lb of a standard bushel 49lb of "dry" weight? That would mean 41 standard bushels in a "dry ton". Anyway, the 1997 production is about 34.7M dry tons of corn, which would be enough to produce 4.3e9 gallons of ethanol per year, and that would be by turning its entire corn grain production into ethanol.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 10:59:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What I think is significant is the way that the politicians are jumping on this bandwagon as the path to energy salvation. While this is a classically American pop culture approach to a problem, we can see that other countries like Brazil are doing their versions of the same thing.

It is likely that some amount of ethanol production could serve a constructive purpose, but what we have is people wanting to pour huge amounts of development resources into its production to the exclusion of things like more efficient transportation systems. We will soon see the emergence of an ethanol lobby to rival the oil lobby.

by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 11:16:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We will soon see the emergence of an ethanol lobby to rival the oil lobby.

We like to call it "the farm lobby".

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 11:23:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The farm lobby already exists in the US...

There will be a fight for the corn between the ethanol and beef factions of the farm lobby.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 11:28:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is extensive cross ownership between agribiz and oil biz. A number of the large corporate farms in California are owned by the major oil companies. The make a concerted effort to exert control over the irrigation systems.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 11:39:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What I think is significant is the way that the politicians are jumping on this bandwagon as the path to energy salvation. While this is a classically American pop culture approach to a problem, we can see that other countries like Brazil are doing their versions of the same thing.

The difference is that Brazil has been running pretty much on 100% ethanol since the 1970's, so for them it's not a pop-culture fad.

Now, when the governor of Illinois says he's going to get 50% of the state's fuel from biofuels, does he realise he's proposing to turn the state's entire agricultural production into biofuel feedstock crops?

Brazil has a lower population density, a lower fuel use per capita, and a tropical climate which allows sugar cane production [with twice the ethanol yield of corn]. What works in Brazil need not work in the US [and even less in Europe].

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 11:42:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would expect that the expansion of sugarcane production in Brazil would result in the clearing of more rain forest. This has important ecological implications for global climate change. Therefore dealing with developments in Brazil in isolation, would seem to be undesirable.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 12:47:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the US and Europe start replacing their oil with Brazilian ethanol we have a problem.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 12:54:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep and such trade arrangements seem like a very realistic possibility.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 12:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't comparative advantage a great thing for the environment?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 12:58:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Come to think about it, what is even more likely is ethanol trade between Brazil and China. China is in an energy bind and needs all of its land for food production.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 02:03:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So a price war between China and the US and no ethanol left affordable for the Brazilians?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 02:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
China has been busy for some time building trade relations in Latin America that have the potential to threaten US economic dominance in the region. My prediction is China is much more likely to follow in the footsteps of Britain and then the US in developing asymmetrical economic relationships(economic imperialism if you prefer)than to embrace its brothers and sisters in third world solidarity. There are so many people in Latin America that hate the US they will rush to embrace anybody that rides in on a white horse.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 02:56:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I looked up this advocacy group I'd seen when doing the EU Biofuels work: American Coalition for Ethanol

This is about Middle West corn for ethanol.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:23:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They could use the picture American Gothic for their logo.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 03:33:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting to know how much idle cropland there is in Illinois.

Ethanol from corn is part of the picture tho, I think.

Here's a nice link, I think to sugar production:

http://www.sei.se/energy/sugarcane/7%20Producing%20sugar,%20ethanol%20and%20electricity.PDF#search=% 22Producing%2C%20sugar%2C%20ethanol%2C%20and%20electricity%22

Got a better one on sugar, will try to find it.

"When the abyss stares at me, it wets its pants." Brian Hopkins

by EricC on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 11:23:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is "idle cropland"?

In the EU there is "set-aside" land that is left fallow with a Common Agricultural Policy subsidy to compensate the farmer for non-use (this was done to reduce production). Is there anything similar in the US?

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 11:36:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes indeed there is. It goes back to the New Deal and the US taxpayers are paying for it to the tune of billions of dollars. The scams and scandals associated with this program are legion.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 11:41:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Same Game. Different Continents.

"When the abyss stares at me, it wets its pants." Brian Hopkins
by EricC on Tue Aug 22nd, 2006 at 12:33:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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