In general, NGOs are more sceptical about the validity of promoting biofuels in the EU than industrial stakehlders. Some argue that it is only valid if it is part of an energy policy in which biofuels—as a renewable energy source&meahs;are integrated into a broader context of e.g. promotion of greater energy efficiency, reduction of fossil fuel use, promotion of clean (vehicle) technlogy and low-carbon fuels, modal shifts, and decoupling od demand for transport and economic growth.
Several NGOs and private citizens argue that the support of biofuels should be suspended and completely revised after thorough assessment of the sustainability of biofuels.
Differences between EU-produced feedstocks and imports: Many respondents discern raw materials produced within the EU from materials produced in other countries. For EU feedstocks, many respondents related to primary production indicate that there is an EU Common Agricultural Policy, including cross-compliance and Good Agricultural Practices. They state that there may be criticism on the policy, but that it is not useful to independently develop new criteria for biofuel crops. Others say that, if there would be need for extra criteria, this will be relatively easily implemented, compared with imports. Sustainability of feedstock imports receives much more attention in the resposes. On one hand, certification is more important because the environmental risks are perceived as being larger, on the other hand it is more difficult to implement on foreign regions. Again, it is state[d] by some that such a certification should e.g. address all palm oil imports, not only the imports for biofuels. And there are issues on land use changes and competition for food. Note, however, that Europe's main foreign biofuels supplier, Brazil, states in its response that WTO rules prevent sustainability criteria only to be developed for imports, since this can be regarded an illegal trade barrier.
Many respondents discern raw materials produced within the EU from materials produced in other countries.
For EU feedstocks, many respondents related to primary production indicate that there is an EU Common Agricultural Policy, including cross-compliance and Good Agricultural Practices. They state that there may be criticism on the policy, but that it is not useful to independently develop new criteria for biofuel crops. Others say that, if there would be need for extra criteria, this will be relatively easily implemented, compared with imports.
Sustainability of feedstock imports receives much more attention in the resposes. On one hand, certification is more important because the environmental risks are perceived as being larger, on the other hand it is more difficult to implement on foreign regions. Again, it is state[d] by some that such a certification should e.g. address all palm oil imports, not only the imports for biofuels. And there are issues on land use changes and competition for food.
Note, however, that Europe's main foreign biofuels supplier, Brazil, states in its response that WTO rules prevent sustainability criteria only to be developed for imports, since this can be regarded an illegal trade barrier.
If second generation biofuels are promising, their introduction may be enhanced by support in research and development, so indicate many.
On page 19 there is a bit that I know would not have made sense to me without having read essentially the same argument put forward by Jerome in relation with "a stable regulatory framework" for wind power:
The dominant [industry] argument favouring loger-term EU support for biofuels is that investment decisions to be taken now will have most of their impacts after 2010. A continuing supportive policy would therefore enhance opportunities for biofuels, also for the shorter term.
Still on page 19:
Of the governments the UK and Irish governments favour new targets. However, according to the UK they should be non-binding and related to GHG emission savings. The Netherlands states that it is too early to set a target now, given the problems with meeting the 5.75% target. The Irish government claims that the establishment of targets should therefore have regard to the difficulties, which individual member states have already encountered, and states that any proposals to revise targets should be fully debated so as to establish balanced and reasonable objectives that reflect the position of individual Member States.
On page 21, we have the pie-in-the-sky idea of the future that most of the industry and goverments have...
Question 5.4 If the EU is to define a quantified target for biofuels after 2010, what should it be? What year(s) should it relate to—2015? 2020? Both? The biofuels industry clearly says yes, and many propose targets in the following band with 2015: from 8% to 15% (8% mentioned most, by which many refer to a statement by the eU heads of State) 2020: from 12% to 25%, most advises lying between 15% and 20%. Except from the 8% 2015 target, these figures are generally not related to specific literature sources or forecasts.
Within the bifuels industry, parties related to bioethanol appear to be the most ambitious, with 2020 targets of 20% and higher. One respondent pleads for a longer time span (2030) with a target of 75% in 2030. This with the argument that induced cost increases for fuels will trigger enery efficiency of vehicles and shifts to more energy efficient transport modi, thereby reducing fuel demand. ... On average, the biodiesel-related respondents mention somewhat lower percentages (8-10% for 2015, 15-20% for 2020) Some explicitly mention that higher targets will lead to constraints in (domestic) production of feedstock. This may also be why industries related to feedstock production mention slightly lower targets (8% for 2015, 12-20% for 2020), although not all of these contributors mention this argument in this part of their response.
On page 23:
It is argued that biofuels should be seen as part of an overall package of measures to reduce the environmental impact of transport and the energy sector. Biofuels should also be evaluated in the context of other uses of biomass and the cost-effectiveness of these options in terms of GHG emission reduction. Several respondents state that, for reasons for limited indigenous resources, Member States should not be forced to apply policy incentives in favour of any one sector, where it could impact on the development of more effectve measures in other sectors.
Page 24:
Many stakeholders state that feedstocks as well as biofuels should be evaluated against a set of sustainability criteria, taking into account local conditions. Some of them see the emergence of a new industry as a unique opportunity to set new standards that could eventually be applied to the entire agricultural sector.
As for
In fact, the 8% target in 2015 comes from a statement by the EU heads of State! What is the point of regurgitating to the EU technical staff a statement from the political strata farthest removed from the nitty gritty?
I don't think I would criticize the authors of the summary as much as those who set up these consultations in the first place: why are Member States allowed to participate, when they have, by definition and by treaty, full rights over policy decisions, and cannot be considered to lack representation or an avenue for the expression of their policy preferences? (On second reading, that may be what you meant, but it bears re-stating!)
I don't see anything wrong with allowing the Member States to submit entries (even Brazil did, as a trading partner). It is much easier to influence the commission process at this point than it is to amend an actual policy/legislation proposal. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
I don't object to Brazil participating, it's only MSs that seem to me to have other means at their disposal to influence policy. Either that, or if they haven't, the EU really is run by the bureaucrats alone.
Although the Commission has the right to take any initiative it considers appropriate to attain the objectives of the Treaties, most proposals are a response to legal obligations, technical requirements or to a specific request for action from another institution, a Member State or from the interested parties.
After the commission produces its proposal for an updated regime under the 2003 directove, or even a new directive, the Member States will be less able to steer the proccess. The earlier you put your input in, the bigger the final effect of your input.
I don't see anything wrong, it's all in the public eye. For instance, now we have a position by the UK government and in the future they could be challenged if they contradict themselves.
If you want to conclude that the EU is indeed run by bureaucrats, I won't stand in your way. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
OK, so let MSs contribute input to public consultations. It's still very far from the only influence they have. Take the "online poll" for the Energy Green paper, for example. If the only way Member States can have their say about an essential aspect of policy like energy is to go through that manipulative process, then...
No, don't let me reach a conclusion...
Hmmm... Is that industry respondent who suggests 75% biofuels in 2030 expecting transportation fuel consumption in the EU in 2030 to be 10% of that in 2005?
Anyone got any idea how changing the fleet to plug-in hybrids would affect liquid fuel consumption? I know I'd use hardly any liquid fuel with a plug-in hybrid.
Second-generation ethanol might, however, come into its own and free us from oil dependence (as the Swedish government hopes).
The main point then becomes, in this perspective, how do we generate electricity?
Electricity [Solar, Wind, Hydroelectric] Heat [Solar, Geothermal, Radioactive] Fuel [Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear]
As well as the efficiencies involved in turning electricity into heat, heat into electricity, fuel into heat, electricity or fuel into motion... Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
Note also that turning fuel into heat may be only 60% efficient with older burners that let a good portion of the heat go away with the CO2 through the exhaust pipe, instead of into the heat transfer fluid (the water for the radiators in a house). You need recent "recondensing" boilers to reach >90% efficiency (they cool the exhaust so much that steam condenses and must be drained: if the boiler has a tiny pipe to the sewer, it is one of those). Also, tap-water boilers with a permanent candle were using ~50% of the gas just to stay online... Pierre
If peak oil is really hit in 2005-2010, supply will decline and even if demand stays constant prices will go up. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
As you say elsewhere, the matter of what our expectations are about all this has a determining effect on investment decisions taken now. What seems important from this POV is what the engineers, the industry, the technocrats decide is the forecast they will be guiding the money towards. For example, we may not have super-nifty hybrids all over the place in 2030 if the automobile industry decides it is urgent to do nothing (or almost), as at the moment.
BTW, I may have missed it, but I didn't find our point that the auto industry needed coercing into urgent work on energy efficiency and GHG emissions came out very clearly in the summary; just, (p.5):
Some argue that it is only valid if it is part of an energy policy in which biofuels - as a renewable energy source - are integrated into a broader context of e.g. promotion of greater energy efficiency, reduction of fossil fuel use, promotion of clean (vehicle) technology and low-carbon fuels
You will have to work pretty hard to beat Honda and Toyota. They have already squeezed almost all of the fat out of their hybrids...the Honda Insight being the most extreme example...
The concrete world of highways and motorways, with nodes for fuelling etc, are a homogeneity all over the world. The one size solution fits this replicated microcosm well.
But all these concrete systems run through very diverse types of landscape and cultures which favour perhaps, different types of vehicles. Seen in this light, the one size solution works less well and offers scope for smaller automotive companies.
To give an example; you can find in some tropical/sub-tropical countries (Thailand eg) the concept of the open flat bed hop on-hop off taxi which cruise main routes. I don't know how efficient these are in terms of fuel use per passenger mile, but I would assume they are fairly good. (Certainly the ones I have been on were always packed). These vehicles are always heavily customised - but possibly only 'decoratively'. But I assume it might be worthwhile to also customise suspension, weight distribution, access etc as well as modifying engine peripherals for greater fuel efficiency under stop-go conditions.
All I am saying is that there are many other types of vehicles than family cars, and there is scope for smaller vehicle companies (I should have said this in my earlier comment, not 'smaller car companies') to provide transport solutions that take better account of the local environment and culture.
Instead of us adapting our lives to the mass produced car and the concrete system that has been built to support it, perhaps it would be more fuel/energy efficient for the vehicles to be adapted to us? You can't be me, I'm taken
Who cares whether Ford and GM don't develop cool hybrids? There's always Saab.
SAAB is owned by GM. Volvo is owned by Ford.
I'd have thought that the human fraction would be much smaller, but the numbers check against other sources. The 13.5 TW doesn't include non-fuel uses of agricultural biomass (e.g., as food), but the 75 TW does. Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.