Kosovo is the only precedent for NATO action without UNSC authorisation. I don't think there will be another any time soon. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
I think the chances of a NATO action in defiance of the UNSC are very real. Sudan is a good possibility for it.
I don#t see a reason, if puch comes to shove, for Russia or China to veto an intervention in Sudan, so NATO won't intervene there without a UNSC resolution unless the US chooses not to seek a resolution (like in Afghanistan, by the way) and in that case NATO won't follow (though some NATO members may, like the UK or the Czech Republic). Remember the US chose not to use NATO for the Afghanistan campaign precisely because [Chomsky alert!] according to the NATO treaty it was legitimate for NATO to intervene if Afghanistan was identified as the culprit for 9/11. The US has no more interest in lending legitimcay to the NATO charter than to the UN charter, because if the NATO charter acquires legitimacy it becomes another straitjacket for US action. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
China has already opposed some of the more aggressive moves regarding Sudan. They have oil interest and clients there. I think there is a very real possibility that they would veto a UNSC resolution that wasn't to their liking. They are regularly using their veto power as a lure to establish closer ties with African states. They just persuaded Chad to break ties with Taiwan.
I agree that the US would not let a commitment to the NATO charter get in its way, but it constrains their actions less than the UN charter so for the moment it's useful. It is a place where Russia and China have no voice at all.
Sure, like these guys. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
According to its website the EPP is "a family of the political centre whose roots are deep in the history of European civilization. It unites like-minded national parties, in EU Member States and in EU applicant countries and we maintain close contact with decided probable candidate countries."
Goldwater Moment for Europe? -----sapere aude
