I wonder how close the US is to being defined as a pariah state. If the EU starts looking East rather than West it could easily link with China and Russia for trade, and the US would be out in the cold.
I don't think this is likely at the moment, but disgust with US foreign policy seems almost universal now. If the smaller kids realise that they have what it takes to gang up on the bully, the results could be interesting.
More deliverate destabilisation in the ME might be enough to make that happen.
I think a more likely scenario is that somebody like China eventually becomes strong enough to be the new bully. The little kids will then be paying protection money to a different mob.
And the US is no longer a bully in europe or Russia... they just can not force us to do their bidding.
They still have the MIddle East , though... and they want to keep it badly....the ring to control them all and keep being a bully...but I do not think it will work...We are for a multipolar...the main and relevant variables seem very robust....only a badly managed transition from oil could change the picture...and still it will only for a more fragmented world.
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
I presume you mean of the 'may you live in interesting times' sort of interesting.
We should stay the heck out of the Middle East right now. If the US and Israel want to set it on fire we're not going to be able to stop them, so let's delay the moment when we get burnt. We might just escape with minor blisters. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
Everyone's waiting for Bush's reign to end so that the adults and experts can shake hands again.
If you move now, two years before the term is over, you might get caught with your pants down. That's the big problem right there.
You're talking about tectonic plates moving, ith all the residual economic and cultural effects. In the face of another US election two Novembers from this one, I bet no one moves a finger toward the East.
The US really is pushing the limits of the international system of alliances built by Truman and Ike. Bolton and Rice's diplomacy makes the most sense if you imagine them thinking "let's see how far they let me go". European governments are paralysed with disbelief and cognitive dissonance. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
