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A very good summary of events.  I've never worked in a power plant, but I work fairly closely with people who do.  I can imagine the scenario you describe.  It sounds like a marvelous example of Murphy's Law.  The statistical odds of all those things happening at the same time is probably on the order of a meteor strike.  Cold comfort to anyone who remembers Chernobyl, I know.


Somewhere in cyberspace, the ghost of de Chardin is smiling.
by budr on Tue Sep 12th, 2006 at 10:51:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The statistical odds of all those things happening at the same time is probably on the order of a meteor strike

Which points at negligence as a cause rather than bad luck.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 12th, 2006 at 10:56:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily.  Meteor strikes do happen after all.

Still, I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that large amounts of money eventually change hands based on the circumstances surrounding items 4 & 5.  Pure speculation on my part, you understand.

Somewhere in cyberspace, the ghost of de Chardin is smiling.

by budr on Tue Sep 12th, 2006 at 11:05:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think 1, 2, 3, 6 are actually related and should not be considered independent. Each failure in the chain increases the likelihood of the next one.

So maybe there are just 4 independent faults instead of 7 independent faults.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 12th, 2006 at 12:15:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is exactly the way I am reading it. 7 is unclear as to why it happened and could also be related.

I do not know why 8 & 9 fell out of the list, but they are clearly related as they are because of 3 (nad the reason I call them 8 & 9 instead of 8 is that the paper does so).

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Sep 12th, 2006 at 01:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's generally accepted, by those who calculate such things, that the probability of dying from a meteor strike is roughly the same as dying in an airplane accident. Not at all an insignificant chance.
by asdf on Wed Sep 13th, 2006 at 09:36:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Um. What are the odds? Both events are pretty unlikely, to the point of being insignificant unless you expect to live for a few thousands of years.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Sep 13th, 2006 at 09:41:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here are detailed statistics about air disasters. The risk is per flight, not per distance travelled, and is broken down by aircraft model. The Boeing 737 has 3 accidents for each 5 million flights.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 13th, 2006 at 09:48:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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