Our calculations were:
According to Eurostat, transport fuel consumption for 2002 in the EU-25 was : petrol, 5.2 e6 TJ ; diesel, 6.6 e6 TJ. 5.75% of these gives: petrol, 0.3 e6 TJ ; diesel, 0.38 e6 TJ Ethanol : 0.3 e6 TJ petrol / 22 MJ/l = 13.6 e9 l Biodiesel: 0.38 e6 TJ diesel / 34 MJ/l = 11.2 e9 l If all the area (statistics, DG Agriculture) currently dedicated to potential ethanol feedstocks were used for ethanol, production could be an estimated: · 10.5 e9 l of ethanol potential from the current EU-25 cultivated area of sugar beet (2.1 e6 ha @ 5000 l/ha) · 19 e9 l of maize ethanol potential (from 6.5 e6 ha @ 3100 l/ha) · 33.5 e9 l of common wheat ethanol potential (from 13.4 e6 ha @ 2500 l/ha) · 23 e9 l of barley ethanol potential (from 23 e6 ha @ 1000 l/ha). If only the surplus percentage (in excess of 100% self-sufficiency) of these crops were to be used, the estimates would be: · 30% sugar beet: 10.5 e9 l x 30% = 3.15 e9 l ethanol · 9% common wheat: 33.5 e9 l x 9% = 3 e9 l · 13% barley: 23 e9 l x 13% = 3 e9 l Surplus production (9 e9 l ethanol) would not suffice to cover the needed 13.6 e9 l. Only an extension of the area of ethanol feedstock crops, or a transfer of crops from animal feed to ethanol, would cover needs. As for biodiesel, the total area of the two principal feedstocks, rapeseed and sunflower seed, would produce an estimated: · 5 e9 l from rapeseed (4.5 e6 ha x 1100 l/ha); · 2.2 e9 l from sunflower (2.2 e6 ha x 1000 l/ha) Total production (7.2 e9 l) would not suffice to cover the needed 11.2 e9 l.
As for biodiesel, the total area of the two principal feedstocks, rapeseed and sunflower seed, would produce an estimated:
· 5 e9 l from rapeseed (4.5 e6 ha x 1100 l/ha); · 2.2 e9 l from sunflower (2.2 e6 ha x 1000 l/ha)
Total production (7.2 e9 l) would not suffice to cover the needed 11.2 e9 l.
Yes, your point about ethanol/biodiesel aggregate is right: no doubt they say it's in the aggregate. My attempt here, however, is to do something punchy that will remain as a line of reasoning in readers' minds, so I avoided going into full detail. We could add the above calcs as a note?
I pointed out bits that were wrong but I waan;t quite sure how to correct.
And I don't want to run the risk of triggering the local firewall by submitting an edit. Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
Are you an alien invader?
As said, I'd refer to our consultation available at the EC website and indeed just write up the two conclusions.
Next attempt is made.