I didn't come to a conclusion,,,,or intend to anyway.  I just wanted to make sure you knew that the stock market is based on estimates of future earnings, and therefore had already priced into the home building stocks their best estimates of the housing market going down. (which clearly you do understand, based on your comments.)   I don't personally follow the housing segment, so I have no opinion as to whether they have priced in too big of a decline, or not enough.  I was a little reluctant to write my note, since I thought if you were considering shorting, you were likely a knowledgeable investor, and therefore my comment, "apologies if this is gratuitous".  

I tend to think housing prices overall will be somewhat flat, except in the "hot" areas over the past few years, such as Florida, San Francisco, SoCal where I would imagine there will be drops in prices.  but of course even my "softer landing" type of view, would likely have severe impact on the home builders, who are building new homes in a market where there is likely not much new demand.