There's an odd little website promoting oil market analysis that has some interesting graphs.
check this one out:
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/PAPRPNT.gif
and this one
showing non-opec and open production for the last 30-35 years.
looking at the two you can see just why Saudi want to get prices down to prevent conservation and alternatives. They got destroyed in the early 80's by conservation. You can see how the Saudi's cut and cut their production to hold the price up until they couldn't stand it anymore.
You can see how the high price stimulated exploration and production elsewhere once oil wasnt just going to be $4/bbl based on stripping out the Middle East reserves.
IF (repeat IF) there are deposits to be exploited elsewhere, there will be big efforts to grab these prices. My gut feel is we will get world production up in the next few years and demand will ease. Add in the recession when the Bush bubble bursts and we could be back in the 30's briefly. but I've been wrong before.
One good political event in the Mid East though and up we go.
Add in the recession when the Bush bubble bursts and we could be back in the 30's briefly.
Stick with the basics regarding oil supply and demand, alternative sources, and the risk profile of the world after 9/11 and imho you'll have a clear picture of the future. On the other hand, if you're one of the wacko's that thinks Bush plotted 9/11,,,,well, then you should believe that today's risk premium is due to Bush. Otherwise, stick with your vey logical analysis of the energy markets, and imo you'll be pretty accurate.
Bush's bubble is based on tax deferments that have added $3+ trillion to our debt. That piper has to be paid. the 90's had growth that was underpinned by a balance sheet that was steadily improving. This mediocre expansion is mostly credit driven, both at the government level and from people leveraging their housing. I can and do blame Bush for the hangover we'll have when sanity returns. Just as I blame Reagan for blowing out our balance sheet for 8 years in the 80's.
I don't give Clinton complete credit for the 90's, I'd give it to Rubin and the peace dividend and good fortune. I don't blame bush for the 2001 recession. any more than I blame him for 9-11. He's still an incompetent wanker that could have done more though instead of focusing on Star Wars from Jan to Aug 2001. Please don't put words in my mouth.
As for putting me in with 9-11 conspiracy whackos -- my first reaction is "kiss my ass". Or are you too busy kissing GWB's???
Your description of the 90's is classic limbaugh. Give all credit to Republicans and shift all blame to Clinton. You've dropped about 1000% in credibility in my book. Offgefucken
that post was proof that
the # of assholes is > the number of heads.
