No one truly expects we'll find a way to produce 120 MMBD of crude oil.  Numbers in that range were bandied about in 1980 for roughly now.  The oilco answer was shale, coal liquifaction, biomass and other alternatives.  They were drilling like hell too but they gave us hundreds of millions to spend investigating alternatives.  Of course the real savior was price shock induced recession.

my gut says we have a recession in the USA next year.  If that triggers a recession in China, we could have an economic meltdown over there similar to the big pukeout in the early/mid 90's.  that will be brutal for the supply/demand balance on oil.  I also believe China will hit a wall pretty soon.  They've saturated the US and Western Europe with cheap goods and only put roughly 20% of their population to work in the modern world.  They're destroying their environment.  Can they really double their GDP/oil use again in the next 10 years?  Ditto India.  How long can we afford to buy their junk?  Or perhaps how long will they trade their goods for our junk paper promises?

At some point Bushco will give in to a partition of Iraq.  Oil production will rapidly rise thereafter as they will need the cash to put that place back together.  Instead of a strong member of OPEC, they'll be Nigeria.  Pedal to the metal on production.  There are plenty of Russians, Chinese and others who will rush in there to drill/repair.

Global warming may well shave demand off the winter heating peaks.  Look how hard natgas fell last year after a mild winter.  $15--->$6.  or in oil equivalent, $90-->$36.  That could ding oil this year if we've no hurricane screwing up production.  Stocks are highish.

Supply side is growing as well.  We're holding at 84 MMBD with Venz down 1 on labor strife, Nigeria down 1 on turmoil.  Iraq down 1-2 on war.  Saudis have a little spare.  

If the consumer gets lucky, we could have a +3-5 MMBD increase in supply and a -5 MMBD demand situation.  Oil will puke,  but not for a generation this time.  We'll have a 3-5 year respite.  

So that's the bear case.  probably equally slanted to your bull case.

Even if I'm wrong and none of the bear possibilities arise, at some price, and maybe $100 is what it will take, we'll cut US demand as govt requires 40 MPG as a fleetwide average.  That knocks off 5 MMBD of mogas demand in the USA.  Your windmills will free up natgas for other uses as well.  I just don't see the world in flames over oil.  Mainly because the war will dry up the oil while driving demand through the roof.  One Pakistani nuke on Ras Tanura and the war becomes an exercise in Bush logic.