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It's quite possible that I'm being stupid of course.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 09:37:11 AM EST
Sadly, I think you're reflecting the reality of the situation.

  1. No "peacekeeping force" can prevent a government sponsored ethnic cleansing. "Peacekeeping forces" have neither the mandate nor usually the firepower to do such a job.

  2. Observers on the ground can help prevent small atrocites by virtue of "being witness" but if the local government is determined, it will throw the observers out.

  3. Our international system relies on agreement between competing "great powers" on the UN Security Council. Without it, no "blue helmet" invasion can get UN approval. As has been observed, the day any country upsets the US, China and Russia all at once, it will feel the full force of the UN.

  4. Likewise, without "great power" agreement, there is little chance of diplomatic pressure preventing the ethnic cleansing unless the country happens to be economically dependent on just a couple of countries. Sudan has some oil, which means at the moment sanctions are unlikely to happen and/or work.

  5. In short, it's going to be horrific.

What can be done? Well, we could engage in some "liberal hawking" and stage a NATO invasion. But, the killer is not winning the invasion, but what happens next. Short of setting up a separate state, it's hard to see how an invasion will solve the friction between the central government of Sudan and those in this southern area. And do we have the political capital and goodwill to go and create a new country after an invasion? Or indeed the strategic reserve of troops to do it whilst holding down commitments in Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon (plus minor engagements elsewhere)?

I think not.

Which is easy to type when you don't live in Darfur, but I don't see any good solutions. I'd like to see a much stronger diplomatic effort, but I think it will fail because China has no interest in recognizing the rights of minorities (c.f Tibet) and besides neither China nor Russia have many reasons to trust the West, it seems at the moment.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 09:52:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Forgive me for being cynical, but this all really reminds me of Rwanda.

Never again, until next time, huh?

Interesting how the most powerful countries in the world are expert decision makers when it comes to issues of maintaining their own power, esp the economic power, over the rest of the world, but when it comes to doing something just because it is decent and humane and ethically responsible, they all act like confused, oblivious, indecisive followers waiting for someone else to "go first."

Please, don't let them fool you.  If the UN really wanted to help these people, they would.  These countries can invade half the Middle East, pay to send people into outerspace, negotiate the ownership of the world's natural resources.  It's not that we can't end a genocide.  It's that it is not a priority.  Life in Europe and America and Russia and China will go on without poor people in Africa.  

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 10:46:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm afraid that you're over-stating the power of the powerful.

First, the most powerful countries in the world are crap at making decisions when in comes to maintaining their own power. Let me point at Imperial Britain and the current US regime, which has massively undermined its power, as obvious examples of this.  They're also shit at negotiating the ownership of resources. Generally this involves giving them to people who fund and support people who are trying to destroy the most powerful countries.

Second, the result of their invading the middle east is, among other things, to make clear that we need to ask "what next"? We could, maybe, stop a genocide for a while by invading. What then? Occupy the area for a few decades? Split up the existing state into a few more?

Going into space is easy: that's just a problem of technology and money.

Rwanda might have been doable if we had intervened very, very early on when the government were busy whipping up the people into a frenzy.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 10:53:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, of course it reminds you of Rwanda. Why would it be any different. Most people don't care. That's a basic political reality.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:02:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Metatone wrote:
No "peacekeeping force" can prevent a government sponsored ethnic cleansing. "Peacekeeping forces" have neither the mandate nor usually the firepower to do such a job.

What about Chapter VII of the UN charta?

I just googled this from Africa Action: How the UN Can Stop Genocide in Darfur. Don't know if it is all true. Check for yourself:

Precedents Prove Case for UN-African Peacekeeping Operation

Under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, the Security Council may take such action as necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. The members of the UN have previously shown their willingness and capability to invoke Chapter 7 peace enforcement and peace-building instruments in response to conflict in Africa. Now, the UN can and must furnish the AU with a strong civilian protection mandate and with international backing in the form of a UN peacekeeping mission to support the AU in Darfur.

Precedents show that the UN is a viable source for effective and appropriate international intervention to stop genocide and other crimes against humanity. The following examples also show instances of successful cooperation between African regional bodies, which intervened as "first responders", and the UN, which acted to reinforce their efforts with a larger international force.

(1) In Sierra Leone, after the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) intervened to enforce the peace in 1998, the UN Security Council acted in 1999 to authorize an international force with a robust mandate, under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, to work alongside and coordinate with the ECOWAS mission. In late 1999, ECOWAS troops in Sierra Leone were "re-hatted" as UN peacekeepers, and transitioned into a UN mission the next year. The transition in early 2000 was initially rocky, but the Security Council rallied behind the mission and boosted its strength, and the mission was able to deter conflict and restore a secure environment to Sierra Leone.

(2) In Liberia, ECOWAS intervened to enforce the peace in 2003, and in August of that year it was granted the authority and mandate by the UN Security Council, under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, to establish security and facilitate humanitarian assistance in Liberia and to pave the way for a UN intervention. The UN Security Council acted swiftly and decisively to authorize and deploy (within 2 months) a larger multinational intervention in Liberia. The ECOWAS troops acted as the first contingent of the UN mission to Liberia, and authority was successfully transferred to the UN operation in October 2003. This international operation has been successful in promoting peace and stability in Liberia.

(3) In Côte d'Ivoire, the UN Security Council granted authority to ECOWAS and to France in 2003 to take the necessary steps to provide security and protection in Côte d'Ivoire. In 2004, a UN operation was authorized to take over from the ECOWAS force and work alongside the French forces to facilitate the implementation of the peace agreement and to provide protection in Côte d'Ivoire.

(4) In Burundi, the AU authorized and deployed its first peacekeeping operation in 2003, when the institution was itself only one year old. The AU operation in Burundi faced financial and logistical challenges, but it was able to oversee the cease-fire and provide some stability. It coordinated with the UN to ensure a relatively smooth transition to a UN operation in Burundi after one year.

Also under a Chapter 7 mandate, the UN already has a precedent of authorizing and deploying a peacekeeping operation in southern Sudan. In March 2005, the UN passed a resolution establishing a UN mission in Sudan (UNMIS) with up to 10,000 personnel and a mandate to support the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. At present, UNMIS comprises some 4,000 troops from more than 50 countries, the majority of which are outside the African continent.

These examples illustrate several important lessons, which must now be applied to a UN intervention in support of the AU mission in Darfur. First and foremost, these precedents reveal that a UN-authorized Chapter 7 intervention force in support of an African-led force can be effective in providing security and protection. They show that the Security Council can act with swiftness and decisiveness to grant a robust mandate and troop strength to protect civilians, and they highlight that such an intervention can act as a deterrent to violence and as a catalyst to make a peace process successful.
http://africaaction.org/newsroom/index.php?op=read&documentid=1603&type=15&issues=1024




Atlantic Review - A press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni
by Atlantic Review (bl -at- atlanticreview dot org) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:30:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not stupid, but perhaps desperate/frustrated/depressed, like most of us?

At least this sounds desperate and contradictory to me:

I still don't see how military power can achieve anything here without the agreement of a government that is supporting the people causing the probelm.

I mean, if the government is supporting the genocide, how likely is it that the government agrees to peacekeepers?

(And if the government were not supporting the genocide, there would not be a genocide, but "only" mass murder...)


Atlantic Review - A press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni

by Atlantic Review (bl -at- atlanticreview dot org) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:16:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not contradictory. If the government is supporting the genocide than the likelihood of it agreeing to effective peacekeeping would be zero.

So just despressed.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:25:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Contradictory" in the sense that you hoped that the government agrees to peacekeeping troops.


Atlantic Review - A press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni
by Atlantic Review (bl -at- atlanticreview dot org) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:34:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hoped is rather too strong a word.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:36:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia: Sudan
Area - Total 2,505,813 km² (10th)
Population - July 2006 est. 36,992,490 (33rd)
AR, please specify the military commitment you envision here.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:27:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
@ Migeru
Okay, but in what parts of Darfur do people live? Are they living spread out everywhere or are there some population centers? Sure, they don't live in cities etc, but...
What about creating "safe zones"?
What about seizing or destroying all helicopters and trucks used by the Janjaweed and their supporters. And seizing their fuel depots... Not easy, not perfect, but it makes a difference and you don't need a huge number of troops. You "just" need Chapter VII. It would be dangerous for those troops, no question about that.

I am not pushing for a military commitment. I just responded to some arguments made in the comments here.

I understand the problem you mention. Therefore I would like to see more diplomatic action: Carrots and Sticks.

  • Smart Sanctions.
  • No Business Fairs. Sudan does not need no Mercedes Benz, and should not get oil drilling equipment for now.
  • Divestment to put pressure on Siemens, Alcatel and others. Sudan does not need better telecommunications to better organize the genocide/mass murder, expulsions etc.

The Sudanese government will not stop the genocide as long as Western companies continue to help underwrite Sudan's economic growth.

According to the Investor Responsibility Research Center:
Siemens AG and its subsidiaries have operations in the energy, telecommunications
and manufacturing sectors of Iran. The company also has operations in Sudan's
energy and telecommunications sectors as well as Syria's telecommunications sector.
Due to the company's scope and type of involvement in these sectors, financial or
reputational risks exist with respect to global security concerns that merit investor
attention. These risks are compounded by Siemens AG's operations in more than one
country and sector reviewed by the Monitor.
The energy sector has potential security risks including the following:
* Activities in this sector can generate significant hard currency revenues,
particularly from energy exports, that are available for discretionary use by the
government;
* Certain types of power generation facilities and related components have potential
military applications;
* The governments covered by the Monitor often rely on foreign firms for advanced
technologies, equipment, industry expertise and financing for large-scale energy
projects; and
* These governments and their state-owned entities or agencies are closely linked to
the commercial energy sector.
The telecommunications sector has potential security risks including the following:
* Certain telecommunications equipment and technologies have potential military
(or 'dual use') applications;
* Certain types of telecommunications infrastructure, such as command and control
technology, computers, communications and intelligence systems, are central to
military capabilities;
http://www.irrc.org/company/Siemens_SampleRpt.pdf

The folks running the divestment campaign believe that it works:

UC Divestment from Sudan - Position
"The effectiveness of divestment from Sudan has clear and recent precedent. Talisman Energy's 2003 decision to extricate itself from operations in Sudan following widespread and sustained economic pressure by Western investors over human rights abuses committed by the government during the North-South civil war prompted two other international oil companies to sell their stakes in Sudan. Faced with the prospect of continuing loss of FDI, Khartoum signed the Naivasha Treaty with southern rebels shortly thereafter, paving the way for the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between North and South in January of 2005.

Finally, divestment will do minimal harm to innocent Sudanese. The divestment criteria designed by the taskforce, and specifically enumerated in Section VIII, exclude any company engaged in the provision of goods and services intended to relieve human suffering or to promote human welfare. They also exclude sectors of the Sudanese economy, such as agriculture, which provide employment for large sectors of the population."
http://www.inosphere.com/sudan/position.asp#proposal

I am not so sure about it since China is more and more important for Sudan. However, I think we often exaggerate China's economic influence a bit. Besides, if we are unwilling to send troops, then more funding and operational support for the AU (operating under a better mandate) as well as divestment should be the least we should do.

What do you propose, Migeru?


Atlantic Review - A press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni

by Atlantic Review (bl -at- atlanticreview dot org) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 12:08:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I tend to agree. The problem is that calls for military intervention are distracting from more sensible schemes that might have some chance of working.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 02:47:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct, but if the government is supporting the genocide, then the logical outcome is that you can't "peacekeep," and it would seem that logically you have to "regime change."

But, my depressing conclusion is that that is politically unlikely to be supported in most countries around the world.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:33:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A question is whether regime change would be an improvement. It often isn't. This seems to be a long running and deep conflict fuelled by sectarianism and racism, fed by assorted colonial powers and funded with oil money. How you do change the regime to something acceptable?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:35:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I hate to repeat myself, but if there is no peace to keep you cannot send in "peacekeepers". According to the Sudan Tribune article I quote on a parallel thread, this proposed UN force would be Police and Military Police. Now a fighting force.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:38:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
migeru wrote:
if there is no peace to keep you cannot send in "peacekeepers".

"Peacekeepers" can have either a Chapter VI mandate for peacekeeping (=keeping the peace) or a Chapter VII for peaceenforcement (trying to create peace, where none exists).

The bluehelmets operating under a Chapter VII peace enforcement mandate are also called "Peacekeepers".

"Peaceenforcers" would be a better term, but the charta (?) and everybody only refer to them as "Peacekeepers".


Atlantic Review - A press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni

by Atlantic Review (bl -at- atlanticreview dot org) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 12:15:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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