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They still need to be allowed in by the government. I submit that the only reason the current AU force is tolerated is because it can't be very effective.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:49:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the troops are going in under Ch. 7 they don't need to be allowed in. But then you need more than 25k troops, don't you?

Wikipedia: Military of Sudan

The Sudan People's Armed Forces is a 60,000-member army supported by a small air force and navy. Irregular tribal and former rebel militias and Popular Defence Forces supplement the army's strength in the field. This is mixed force, having the additional duty of maintaining internal security. Some rebels currently fighting in the south are former army members. Sudan's military forces have historically been hampered by limited and outdated equipment. In the 1980s, the U.S. worked with the Sudanese Government to upgrade equipment with special emphasis on airlift capacity and logistics. All U.S. military assistance was terminated following the military coup of 1989.

During the 1990s, periodic purges of the professional officer corps by the ruling Islamist regime has eroded command authority as well as war-fighting capabilities. Indeed, the Sudanese Government admits it is now incapable of carrying out its war aims against the SPLA and NDA without employing former rebel and Arab militias to fight in support of regular troops. Oil revenues have allowed the government to purchase modern weapons systems, including Hind helicopter gun ships, MiG-23 fighters, Antonov medium transport aircraft, mobile artillery pieces, and light assault weapons. Sudan now receives most of its military equipment from the People's Republic of China, Russia, and Libya.

Military branches: Army, Navy, Air Force, Popular Defense Force Militia

Military manpower - military age: 18 years of age

Military manpower - availability:
males age 15-49: 8,739,982 (2002 est.)

Military manpower - fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 5,380,917 (2002 est.)

Military manpower - reaching military age annually:
males: 398,294 (2002 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $581 million (2001 est.)

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 2.5% (1999)

In other words, you can expect to have to beat a force of anywhere between a 60k regular and a 6M-strong full-blown insurgency.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 11:56:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would have thought you'd need a pretty full-on advanced western invasion force to destroy Sudan's military capabilities with acceptable casualties - you can't ask the AU to do that bit and die in much higher numbers - followed by using the AU as occupation troops in the disputed area. I don't think attempting to occupy the entire country is necessary.

Of course, then there's the little matter of insurgency.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 12:03:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What are the best equipped African armies? Isn't South Africa quite wealthy and well-armed?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 12:07:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

From an article febr./06 in International Herald Tribune
Annan recognizes that air power is essential if Darfur's civilians are to be protected from their own government and the janjaweed raiders to whom it has outsourced conduct of its genocidal policy. The African Union force's lack of tactical air power has long limited its ability to conduct its mission, which remains under threat of Sudan's air superiority.

I did read reports of the AU-forces that they have no defence against aerial attacks, no tactical aircraft and no air defence systems.
The Sudanese bombard with whatever plane they can get in the air (their Hinds and fighters are mostly grounded due to several problems)sometimes throwing grenades from light cargo-planes. The Sudanese sometimes coordinate this with  the relief-flights to the refugee camps to terrorise people when they are amassed for the food-distributions.
With European troops busy in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libanon, DR-Congo and a few other places, our politicians will think twice before doing something.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)

by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 12:50:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the UNSC were to impose a no-fly zone over Darfur, who would enforce it? What AU members have the necessary Air Force capabilities to do that?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 12:57:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And to run the required forward operating bases and command and control? Nobody? Maybe South Africa would have the planes but I doubt they could run the distant bases.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 01:00:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Darfur borders Chad. Could the operations be run from airfields there?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 01:11:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, they can , as they prooved in the Angola-war some time ago. Again economics (oil) and politics (Russia, China...) have their own (hidden) agenda.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 01:25:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps Egypt, which gets tons of US military aid and is run by a former member of the air force.


Atlantic Review - A press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni
by Atlantic Review (bl -at- atlanticreview dot org) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 01:30:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Possible perhaps.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 4th, 2006 at 01:31:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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