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If you go to http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ you will be greeted with a price chart that shows the UK housing market is teetering on the brink. There is something peculiar about the last two years of data: it's as if someone or something is propping it up so it doesn't slide down. The lengths of the boom-bust cycles of the UK housing market seem to double time, and also their severity increase because the peaks and the troughs for the last 30-odd years appear to lie on nice straight lines (of course, it is often easy to draw a not-too-curved line through three points).

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 05:05:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, one way to look at that graph is that the overall trend from 1975 (my lifetime in fact, coincidentally) is a 2.4% a year rise.

Given the changes in the market

  • population has risen, albeit slowly over those years
  • families have shrunk (fewer people per house)
  • spread of housing has decreased overall geographically, whole urban areas based on traditional industries have been shrinking in population, cramming the housing demand into a tighter geographical area
  • land is, in the end, finite, especially land near transport links to get people to work

Is 2.4% a year then so unexpected? Is it right to feel that house prices are at an "unrealistic/unnatural/unsupportable" level?

Please note, I ask this in separation from the "will the market follow this boom with a bust?" question, as the entire trend so far is combined out of booms and busts, so there's no reason to suspect that that cycle is automatically at an end.

Rather, I am just curious about house prices in relation to the rest of the economy, because "cost of living" is partly to do with house prices and "cost of living" is a big part of the competition between developed and developing countries.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 05:57:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is 2.4% peak-to-peak, trough-to-trough, or both?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 06:01:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I'm just reading the words on the graph, I didn't do the calculation, but I presume it's from the peak (haha) of 1975 to the current peak. Still you could measure from the trough (haha) of 1976 to the peak of now and it wouldn't change things much.

If it was a trough to trough (1976 to 1995) then it's hard to see that it's a 2.4% per annum rise.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 06:06:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, the last boom cycle has seen a 9.35 per year increse (£70k to £175k in 10.25 years) which is what everyone is focusing on.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 06:12:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, but I have no idea, and I'm curious if anyone else does, which of these things represents "what happens next."

i.e. I assume there will be some kind of correction. Everyone is so leveraged that it has to be considered an unstable situation.

But, what will the next part of the graph actually look like? And more to the point for fools like me, if I intend to live in this country of my birth, long term, how do I arrange to make that affordable?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 06:44:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I had to venture a guess based on that chart, I'd extrapolate that the next trough would be at about £90k in 10 years' time. From £175k, that's a 6.4% per year decrease over the next 10 years. But that is a 20-year extrapolation, past performance doesn't guarantee future performance, etc.

If prices start to slide, as soon as people become aware of it they are going to want to sell earlier rather than later in order not to lose even more money.

I'd say if you're going to be in the country long-term anyway, you might as well wait until a house you like in an area you like becomes affordable for you to buy, which might well happen in the next 5 to 10 years.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 07:08:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I calculate 2.9% per year peak-to-peak (£70k to £175k in 31.25 years) and 1.29% per year trough-to-trough (£55k to £70k in 18.75 years).

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 06:07:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interest only buy-to-let mortgages are a speculator's dream market-distortion. Allows you to buy with minimal money down and hoover up the profit in a couple of years.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 08:00:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Buy-to-let doesn't get the rofit back in a couple of years. It's buy-to-resell that does.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 08:06:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
buy-to-let is the type of mortgage. What they do with it once they've secured it is neither here nor there.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 24th, 2007 at 08:14:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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