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I'd expect a breaking-up UK to alter the political scenario in the North in all sorts of ways, but I'm damned if I could guess the outcome. It's not a stable, linear system!

I mean, the whole point of Unionists is to stay in the Union. Would Commonwealth membership suffice for them? But the North has strong Scottish links. Can you imagine a Kingdom of Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Republicans would be emboldened by a break-up and I'd expect to see violent elements reasserting themselves - probably on both sides. It then depends how that cascades. Remember that originally British troops arrived in the North to protect Nationalists from Unionists.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:28:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't Scotland Catholic, too?

When the "Conservative and Unionist Party" seems bent on getting an English Parliament, Unionism be damned, it seems that Scottish Unionists are not in control of their future...

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:46:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Scotland? Catholic? Uh, no:

Just over two-thirds (67%) of the Scottish population reported currently having a religion. More than six out of ten people said that their religion was Christian (65%): 42% Church of Scotland, 16% Roman Catholics and 7% Other Christian.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:52:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I see you've covered why this might be a problem.

What is the demographics in N Ireland now? Aren't birthrate and emigration differentials slowly wiping out the demographic advantage the unionists historically had?

I'd say your six nations side might have a better go at the stade de france with a bit more help from up there...

I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from them Eugene Debs

by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But, they do get help from "up there" - rugby is a "united Ireland" game.
by det on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 02:07:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I did not know that. Wonder why they don't do football that way.

Well, since you put it that way, and since rugby is the superior sport, perhaps they should consider political boundaries the way they do rugby boundaries.

Suspect the SNP would agree as well...

I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from them Eugene Debs

by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 02:56:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cricket is also organised on an all Ireland basis.

The difference is that rugby union and cricket, in Ireland, are predominantly middle class sports. Association football (or soccer) is more of a working class game and thus more influenced by the passions of partition.

That is my theory anyway.

by Gary J on Sat Jan 20th, 2007 at 08:54:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Among the children, the Catholics already have a majority. It's close enough to breakeven overall to predict a Catholic majority in a few decades even if the birthrate difference will be eliminated. I'll dig up the statistics in a few minutes.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 04:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Few minutes became hours, but anyway: check pages 30-33 (pdf pages 24-27) of this pdf, which lists community belonging (e.g. religion or parents' religion) according to age in the 2001 census.

Overall:
Protestants (total) 895,377
Catholics (total) 737,412
(I'd estimate that since 2001, Protestants must have remained about level, while Catholics must have added some 25,000.)

Among those aged 73 or older, Protestants are more than twice of Catholics. In the peak year for Protestant (and a boomer generation peak for Catholics), age 36 in 2001, Protestants still maintain a lead, albeit one shrunk to 20% (14,253 : 11,822).

For every single age 24 years old or younger, Catholics are ahead. On the crest of the next demographic wave (and the peak year for Catholics), age 16, Catholics are 13% ahead (12,321 : 13,918). Although the advantage lessened somewhat among the early and pre-teens, it's again higher among the babies, with the <1 years group showing the record 15.9% Catholic advantage over Protestants.

Note though, among the youngest, there is also a record 9.2% with 'no religious background'.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 08:08:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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