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Depends on the consequences: we already can't join Schengen because the UK won't. MInd you, a UK refusal would probably help the yes vote here ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:00:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You need to write a diary explaining Ireland's structural dependence on the UK, which you bring up any time people think of doing something without Britain.

Also, how would a break-up of the UK into England plus Celtic nations (Scotland, Wales, Cornwall) affect things?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:02:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You need to write a diary explaining Ireland's structural dependence on the UK, which you bring up any time people think of doing something without Britain.

It's called "Northern Ireland". We've got an open border with the UK so we're constrained on border and immigration policy. We can't close the border as that would have unacceptable effects on people in border counties.

Thinking about it, I don't think that would have much effect on the enhanced cooperation things except on travel policy: you'd still need passport and border checks, and it's not as if you can simply walk from Ireland to France.

The UK leaving the EU might be problematic - we have to move stuff through them - but that's a matter of negotiating details.

I have no idea what the effect of a splintering UK would have. I doubt a federal unUK would have much effect, but full independence for lots of bits would be interesting, in the Chinese proverb sense.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:11:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah.

All you need is an independent Ulster with an open border.

How Eurosceptic is Northern Ireland?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:15:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think the North is very Eurosceptic. It would need huge subventions from the EU to support an independent state - its economy doesn't work very well at all as far as I know.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:17:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, Northern Ireland does receive structural funds.

The question is, if the choice was to stay in the Union with England or to stay in the EU, what would happen? Another flare-up?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:23:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd expect a breaking-up UK to alter the political scenario in the North in all sorts of ways, but I'm damned if I could guess the outcome. It's not a stable, linear system!

I mean, the whole point of Unionists is to stay in the Union. Would Commonwealth membership suffice for them? But the North has strong Scottish links. Can you imagine a Kingdom of Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Republicans would be emboldened by a break-up and I'd expect to see violent elements reasserting themselves - probably on both sides. It then depends how that cascades. Remember that originally British troops arrived in the North to protect Nationalists from Unionists.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:28:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't Scotland Catholic, too?

When the "Conservative and Unionist Party" seems bent on getting an English Parliament, Unionism be damned, it seems that Scottish Unionists are not in control of their future...

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:46:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Scotland? Catholic? Uh, no:

Just over two-thirds (67%) of the Scottish population reported currently having a religion. More than six out of ten people said that their religion was Christian (65%): 42% Church of Scotland, 16% Roman Catholics and 7% Other Christian.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:52:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I see you've covered why this might be a problem.

What is the demographics in N Ireland now? Aren't birthrate and emigration differentials slowly wiping out the demographic advantage the unionists historically had?

I'd say your six nations side might have a better go at the stade de france with a bit more help from up there...

Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh

by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But, they do get help from "up there" - rugby is a "united Ireland" game.
by det on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 02:07:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I did not know that. Wonder why they don't do football that way.

Well, since you put it that way, and since rugby is the superior sport, perhaps they should consider political boundaries the way they do rugby boundaries.

Suspect the SNP would agree as well...

Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh

by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 02:56:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cricket is also organised on an all Ireland basis.

The difference is that rugby union and cricket, in Ireland, are predominantly middle class sports. Association football (or soccer) is more of a working class game and thus more influenced by the passions of partition.

That is my theory anyway.

by Gary J on Sat Jan 20th, 2007 at 08:54:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Among the children, the Catholics already have a majority. It's close enough to breakeven overall to predict a Catholic majority in a few decades even if the birthrate difference will be eliminated. I'll dig up the statistics in a few minutes.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 04:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Few minutes became hours, but anyway: check pages 30-33 (pdf pages 24-27) of this pdf, which lists community belonging (e.g. religion or parents' religion) according to age in the 2001 census.

Overall:
Protestants (total) 895,377
Catholics (total) 737,412
(I'd estimate that since 2001, Protestants must have remained about level, while Catholics must have added some 25,000.)

Among those aged 73 or older, Protestants are more than twice of Catholics. In the peak year for Protestant (and a boomer generation peak for Catholics), age 36 in 2001, Protestants still maintain a lead, albeit one shrunk to 20% (14,253 : 11,822).

For every single age 24 years old or younger, Catholics are ahead. On the crest of the next demographic wave (and the peak year for Catholics), age 16, Catholics are 13% ahead (12,321 : 13,918). Although the advantage lessened somewhat among the early and pre-teens, it's again higher among the babies, with the <1 years group showing the record 15.9% Catholic advantage over Protestants.

Note though, among the youngest, there is also a record 9.2% with 'no religious background'.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 08:08:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Simpler solution: give Ireland back to the Irish.

Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's the little issue of those nasty Unionist paramilitaries.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's what jails are for.

Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:05:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which Irish?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:37:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The real ones?

Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
???

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:49:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know, maybe we could get those Irish-Americans to mediate like Clinton with Mitchell (aren't both of those two "Irish-americans"?) and trade the irish-scots in scotland for the scots-irish in ulster. It'd be nicer if those unionists could quit being so bigotted, but since they seem to have a bit of a problem living respectfully and at peace with  neighbors who harbor a different view of religion and history than their own, maybe alternatives are preferable...

Not enough irish-scots to compensate for all the orangemen bigots in Ulster? Maybe send some of the Irish-american diaspora back too and get the balances to foot. Fringe benefit for me - Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity taking over whole blocks of RTE programming, and my own airwaves far cleaner!

Course, there might still be a problem with the french-irish too, all those normans with surnames that don't start with o' and mc'. Seem to recall there was a monument built in Wexford to commemorate the 800th anniversary or so of the Norman landing, so maybe some mediation down there will be necessary as well.

Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh

by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 01:06:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
!!!

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 01:19:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
oh, i forgot to mention about that monument to the norman arrival - it was blown up.

not everyone thinks it was a good thing, apparently.

Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh

by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 03:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who would that be?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 12:54:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Being facetious...

Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
by redstar on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 01:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Colman can correct me on this, but I imagine the Irish are not at all eager to find themselves playing the UK in a role reversed repeat of the seventies.  Things are fairly calm now, why stir them up?
by MarekNYC on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 03:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
why you "can't" join Schegen if Britain won't? Is it because of Northern Ireland? Is is Britain objecting, or the Schengen countries?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:09:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We'd have to abandon the free-movement area with the UK, which is politically impossible and practically awkward since it would close the Border.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:13:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would you "have" to abandon it? Norway is in Schengen, after all.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:30:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because movement of people without border control is transitive. If A is permitted from France into Ireland without border control and is then permitted to move from Ireland to the UK without border control then A has moved from France to the UK without border control, which is pretty much what the UK doesn't want.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:35:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why not make the easy step of taking advantage of the physical fact that Ireland is an island - any move form Northern Island to mainland UK could require some form of id, whether at the airport (ids checked anyway) or boat?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:38:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because Northern Ireland is a part of the UK and they can't institute border checks between two parts of the UK. Politically impossible.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:40:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You are not big on the symbolic side of things, aren't you?

Imagine how Unionists would beel about needing ID to go to the rest of the UK, andnot needing it to go to Ireland.

Plus, as of today, there is no ID requirement in the UK, and no optional national id. You'd need a driver's licence or a passport to go from Northern Ireland to England.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:41:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You'd need a driver's licence or a passport to go from Northern Ireland to England.

But you do already. How do you go between the two places other than by plane or by car/ferry boat?

And yeah, I understand about the symbol. Just hide it behind "security". We don't seem to mind in airports.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:55:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you know you don't actually have to carry your driver's licence with you when you drive in the UK? Ot at least so I'm told by Brits.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:56:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Something is wrong in my argument, I'm describing the current situation as unacceptable to Unionists...

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 11:00:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To go to the UK they don't need a passport. To go to France they do. They may need some other ID for their carrier - though I don't know if that's true on a ship.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 11:08:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I looked at the website of a ferry company and they say it is "advised" that UK citizens take some form of ID (though they don't need a passport) with them on the ferry.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 11:18:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They are?

Well, the point here is that Norway would have had to abandon the Nordic open border agreements, and given the choice they decided to join Schengen. The UK doesn't trust Europe and so whould rather close the border with Ireland if Ireland joined Schengen. But Ireland is in a situation of dependence with respect to the Uk here, so they stay out of Schengen.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 10:35:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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