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Among the children, the Catholics already have a majority. It's close enough to breakeven overall to predict a Catholic majority in a few decades even if the birthrate difference will be eliminated. I'll dig up the statistics in a few minutes.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 04:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Few minutes became hours, but anyway: check pages 30-33 (pdf pages 24-27) of this pdf, which lists community belonging (e.g. religion or parents' religion) according to age in the 2001 census.

Overall:
Protestants (total) 895,377
Catholics (total) 737,412
(I'd estimate that since 2001, Protestants must have remained about level, while Catholics must have added some 25,000.)

Among those aged 73 or older, Protestants are more than twice of Catholics. In the peak year for Protestant (and a boomer generation peak for Catholics), age 36 in 2001, Protestants still maintain a lead, albeit one shrunk to 20% (14,253 : 11,822).

For every single age 24 years old or younger, Catholics are ahead. On the crest of the next demographic wave (and the peak year for Catholics), age 16, Catholics are 13% ahead (12,321 : 13,918). Although the advantage lessened somewhat among the early and pre-teens, it's again higher among the babies, with the <1 years group showing the record 15.9% Catholic advantage over Protestants.

Note though, among the youngest, there is also a record 9.2% with 'no religious background'.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jan 19th, 2007 at 08:08:00 PM EST
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