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In reality, the individual roles of deterministic factors such as El Nino, anthropogenic climate change, and of purely random factors (i.e. "weather") in the pattern observed thusfar this winter cannot even in principle be ascertained. What we do know, however, is that both anthropogenic climate change and El Nino favor, in a statistical sense, warmer winters over large parts of the U.S. When these factors act constructively, as is the case this winter, warmer temperatures are certainly more likely. Both factors also favor warmer global mean surface temperatures (the warming is one or two tenths of a degree C for a moderate to strong El Nino). It is precisely for this reason that some scientists are already concluding, with some justification, that 2007 stands a good chance of being the warmest year on record for the globe.(Real Climate)
And useful comments ...
The reality, as we've often remarked here before, is that absolute statements of neither sort are scientifically defensible. Meteorological anomalies cannot be purely attributed to deterministic factors, let alone any one specific such factor (e.g. either global warming or a hypothetical long-term climate oscillation).
Also, there's a story today about the Greenland ice sheet melting 3 times faster than expected. Metro: Arctic melt 'could sink our cities' (January 22, 2007)
... A melt of 80km3 was predicted for 2006 but the latest figures show 287km3 has disappeared - almost three-and-a-half times more than expected. ... Martin Truffer, a glaciologist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, said: 'The general thinking until very recently was that ice sheets don't react very quickly to climate. 'But that thinking is changing right now, because we're seeing things that people have thought are impossible.' But Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University, insisted there was no need to panic. 'There is no consensus on how much Greenland's ice will melt and no computer model that can accurately predict the future of the ice sheet,' he said.
A melt of 80km3 was predicted for 2006 but the latest figures show 287km3 has disappeared - almost three-and-a-half times more than expected.
...
Martin Truffer, a glaciologist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, said: 'The general thinking until very recently was that ice sheets don't react very quickly to climate.
'But that thinking is changing right now, because we're seeing things that people have thought are impossible.'
But Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University, insisted there was no need to panic.
'There is no consensus on how much Greenland's ice will melt and no computer model that can accurately predict the future of the ice sheet,' he said.
And the fact that there is no consensus and no correct models should be no cause for comfort. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
It passes my understanding why disciplines who know damn well their object of study is a Chaotic System routinely ignore that fact when creating their Models. Further, various subsidary parts of these Models are incorporated incorrectly as well, Migeru's example of glaciers being essentially viscous fluids is a case in point.
I'm sure it's all great fun to spend one's time creating bogus Models, crank the math around, and then publish papers and reports saying how wonderful the modelers are. However, when the object of study is a dire problem - such as Global Climate Change - I submit this silliness is completely irresponsible. Have epistemological model of Complex Information environments. Will Travel.
Which part of "there is no need to panic" didn't you understand? No wonder he's the Penn State professor, and not us. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
Perhaps my bad attitude is why I never get invited to the best parties? Have epistemological model of Complex Information environments. Will Travel.
