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Ahh, what a nice surprise, after not being able to get to the site for a while, to read down the diaries and posts and find out about winning the contest.  Thank you Jerome.

Obviously there is more than a fair amount of luck in these things.  Winning by a dime on a $60 right answer is winning by 0.17%, obviously a photo finish.  And then as HiD points out, there has been quite a bit of volatility the last week+, and different closing dates would have given different winners.  I'm happy to have just been in the ball park.  

I did enjoy the idea of the contest, because it does bring us back to our predictions and discussions, after the time has passed and the facts have materialized.  There wil always be some luck in even being close, much less winning, because who knows what world events will happen between the bet and the close.  But still, since we do a lot of theorizing and predicting, it's fun to see how those predictions play out.

by wchurchill on Fri Jan 5th, 2007 at 10:28:17 AM EST

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