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I think a breakdown of supply chains and eventual anti-science jihads would be a realisatic scenario in reply to your challenge.

The added benefit is that it happened before. When Rome collapsed, most of the antique technology was lost (lost in practical use, even if some parts of the know-how could survive in books hidden somewhere). This loss was not instantaneous but a process. Granted, what came after wasn't what existed before, but it was definitely more resembling prior forms of rural poverty than the collapsed civilisation. I'd say the Maya collapse and some of the Chinese inter-dynastic periods also fit the bill.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jan 7th, 2007 at 05:01:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Breakdown of supply chains: I can imagine many supply disruptions over a period of time, many huge price increases, but what would be the mechanism for a general breakdown? Just for calibration, consider German aircraft production during WWII. Huge efforts were made to break down their supply chains, and these caused enormous problems, yet "...the Strategic bombing survey conducted by the United States in 1946 determined that German industrial production in aircraft, steel, armor, and other sectors had risen hugely during the war despite strategic bombing." (Wikipedia: Strategic bombing during World War II)

Anti-science jihads: If science stopped, technological development and adaptation to change would slow, not reverse. To the extent that technology itself were undercut, the nations that allowed the attacks would become militarily irrelevant, and would be dominated by the rest.

The collapse of Rome was an essentially political and cultural process. It didn't lead to the collapse of China or India, and likewise, political collapses in China didn't collapse India or Europe. There are multiple centres of technological civilisation today, making the global system of civilisation resistant to local collapses.

I still don't see a credible scenario for what I would call a real collapse (as distinct from something that would collapse suburbia, and thus be widely seen as the veritable End of the World).

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Mon Jan 8th, 2007 at 03:36:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The failure of WWII strategic bombing had several particular reasons that cannot be generalised, including the focus on bombing civilian quarters (especially under British command and especially for firebombing), not expecting underground production, easy repair-ability of railways, and the low precision of bombs dropped from high altitude. But civil wars, small wars between countries on the supply chain to a third country, and pillaging of transport routes are much more effective in breaking down supply chains.

Your second comment belies a 20th-century mindset about war. But just the US failure in Iraq or the Israeli failure in Lebanon show that technological superiority doesn't convert into military victory. Meanwhile, while military technology might be maintained for some time (though definitely not when a major military power falls apart into multiple statelents), civilian can get lost. This happened in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

I don't think your analogy between the multiple civilisations of the antique and the multiple technological centres today holds. Those ancient civilisations were essentially self-contained both economically and technologically. None of the centres today are, we are in the age of globalisation. ('National economy' is a fiction, I'd argue it always was, but especially now.) The collapse of supply chains I meant were the global supply chains. I think the right analogy for eventually surviving technological centres would be say the post-5th-century Byzantine Empire.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 9th, 2007 at 04:37:05 AM EST
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